Several studies conducted in India have underscored the climate crisis’s significant impact on the country. These have highlighted the increase in frequency and intensity of climate extremes over the past few decades. There are various ways in which the data are interpreted and understood from scientific and societal perspectives. The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) conducted a study investigating climate patterns over the past 50 years, and it shows a rising trend for maximum and minimum temperatures regardless of location. Maximum temperatures are observed to be rising more rapidly across India, except for a few locations. The increase varies from 0.1 degree Celsius to 0.4 degree Celsius per decade, and the trends are statistically significant at 90% confidence levels. The northwestern regions of India show the highest rise, at 0.3 degree Celsius per decade. The northeastern regions show an increase in the number of hot days, with 10-15 more hot days per year. The west coast shows a rise in hot days too, with 5-10 more hot days.

With the climate crisis worsening, a rise in maximum temperature and the number of hot days is predicted for the coming decades. The west side of Rajasthan and Ladakh are expected to experience a sharp rise in maximum temperatures, with an expected increase of around 1.8 degree Celsius by 2055. In terms of hot days, both the annual and seasonal (summer) estimations show more hot days in the coming years, with the summer months expected to record an increase of 4-40 more hot days. This includes the western part of Rajasthan, west of Gujarat, and the west coast, all experiencing increases in the range of 20-35 hot days.

Temperatures consistently remaining above the climatological normal result in heatwave conditions that carry outsized health-harm potential. Many times, people are taken by surprise when they get affected as they do not realise the extent of exposure during the flow of activities during the day. The health impact includes heat strokes, dehydration and, in extreme cases, even death. Besides, the discomfort from extreme heat leads to loss of productivity. These conditions are likely to increase with time and, therefore, need particular attention.

As the climate crisis makes extreme heat stretches more common, longer, and more severe, scientists warn of impacts that could put more than a billion lives at risk. Heatwaves with mass impacts can precipitate health emergencies.

Thus, there is a strong need to discuss how heat stress can be tackled. There is also a particular need to widely disseminate the warnings issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in a format that is well understood and easy to act upon by the masses. It is important to convey what actions should be taken, some being as simple as staying indoors if you can afford to, avoiding peak hours for outdoor activities, avoiding over-crowded spaces, staying hydrated and under shade, cooling internal spaces, as well as issuing standard operating protocols for all.

Mid- to long-term measures include improvement in communication on warnings, promoting sustainability in building design and construction, and adoption of proper urban planning and landscaping, which includes open and green spaces to allow for wider air circulation and natural cooling. The concept of green roofs needs to be explored to see if they have an impact.

India needs to be sensitive to rising temperatures and heatwave conditions. The country is now locked into this due to the climate crisis. Such action is essential to reduce the overall disruption that it is likely to experience. A basket of targeted solutions, varying across social strata, needs to be implemented. At the same time, people need to be made aware so that they can avoid getting exposed and affected.

Suruchi Bhadwal is programme director, and K Venkatramana is associate fellow, Earth Science and Climate Change Division, TERI. The views expressed are personal