Jayant’s breaking away from the INDIA bloc is bound to transform the political chessboard of western UP, a region that sends 27 MPs to the Parliament.

The departure follows another break-away: Janata Dal (United)’s Nitish Kumar broke away from the Grand Alliance in Bihar.

Jayant has been part of the Opposition for a decade and consistently attacked the Bharatiya Janata Party and mobilised farmers. His exit is being seen as a major blow to the INDIA bloc and a good catch for the BJP.

“Definitely, Jayant Chaudhary’s departure will boost the morale of the BJP as it is a big achievement for them after the INDIA bloc suffered a major setback in Bihar with Nitish Kumar’s desertion,” Shashi Kant Pandey, an expert and head of the department of political science in Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow, said.

“It will consolidate Jat voters in favour of the BJP not only in Uttar Pradesh but Rajasthan and Haryana as well. In the Jat belt of western UP, INDIA's performance will be affected compared to what it was in the last Lok Sabha election,” he added.

Chaudhary Charan Singh is widely credited for stitching up an important alliance of Jats and Muslims in western UP — his progeny have benefited from his political acumen. And while Ajit Singh has moved between an alliance with the Samajwadi Party, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance and the BJP, the RLD’s most recent alliance with SP and the INDIA bloc seemed quite steady.

BJP leaders are avoiding commenting on the possible impact that Jayant’s exit may have on the INDIA bloc and how exactly it will benefit the saffron party since the BJP-RLD alliance is yet to be announced formally. However, SP veteran Rajendra Chaudhary claimed the RLD’s departure would not harm the SP in any big way.

“We do not think Jayant Chaudhary going with the BJP will harm our or the INDIA’s poll prospects in any manner because polls will be a battle of ideology and the SP will continue to have an upper hand in this battle even without the RLD on its side,” he said indicating that Muslim voters will desert the RLD.

The RLD used to be a force to reckon with in around a dozen districts with a sizable Jat population. These included Baghpat, Muzaffarnagar, Meerut, Shamli, Bijnor, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Mathura, Hathras and Agra. The party’s best Lok Sabha performance was in 2009 when it won five seats in alliance with the BJP (it contested seven). In the 2004 LS polls, the RLD had contested in alliance with the SP and won three seats (it contested 10).

Following the communal riots in Muzaffarnagar in 2013 and the rise of Narendra Modi’s popularity that led to the BJP’s resounding victory in 2014, the rift between Jats and Muslims — RLD’s core voters — grew.

In 2014, the RLD drew a blank on all the eight seats it contested as part of the UPA. Even Ajit Singh, who won the Baghpat seat for six terms, and his son, Jayant, who represented Mathura, lost to BJP candidates Satya Pal Singh and Hema Malini.

In 2019, the party faced another defeat. Despite joining the Grand Alliance formed by the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party, the RLD lost all the three seats it contested. Both Ajit Singh and Jayant lost.

The party went solo in the 2017 assembly polls and could manage to win only one seat, that is, Chaprauli in Baghpat but the lone MLA Sahendra Singh Ramala later joined the BJP in 2018.

The 2022 assembly elections seemed to be a make-or-break situation for Jayant, who had taken over the reins after Ajit Singh’s death in 2021. The political fortunes of the party finally took a turn for the better in 2022 when, as SP’s poll partner, it won eight assembly seats and another in a by-poll.

Some experts credit RLD’s performance in 2022 to sympathy over Ajit’s death and Muslim support for SP, as well as the farmers’ agitation over the Centre’s three controversial farm laws.

None of these factors are at play this time around.

“The Muslim support in 2022 Vidhan Sabha polls in UP was for the SP-RLD alliance and not for the RLD as such,” Meerut-based political scientist SK Sharma said. “We should also not forget that the sympathy wave after the death of Ajit Singh also helped the RLD improve its performance,” he added.

“The SP continues to be Muslim voters’ preferred choice in western UP like in the rest of the state while a majority of Jat voters, especially the young, have already moved to the BJP,” Sharma said. Going by this assessment, the RLD’s move seemed necessary — a strategy to stay relevant. It will be interesting to watch how the RLD’s return to the NDA helps the BJP win seats. The stakes are high for Jayant once more.