Such narratives are threads that join the regions which together send 104 legislators (Malwa 66, Mahakoshal 38) to the 230-member state assembly. In 2018, before Jyotiraditya Scindia walked out of the party, the Congress rode an anti-incumbency wave to win 35 seats as compared to the BJP’s 28 seats in Malwa-Nimar. The score in Mahakoshal was 24:13 for the Congress and the BJP respectively.

Heightened dependence on RSS

As electioneering had a “cold start” ahead of deadlines for filing nominations and withdrawing candidatures (by November 2), the BJP’s intra-party discord found resonance across Dewas, Ujjain and Indore (in Malwa-Nimar) besides Mahakoshal’s Jabalpur, Mandla and Narsinghpur. The Congress too had its share of problems, forcing it forced it to change several announced candidates. But the blowback seemed bigger in the BJP camp, making the party twice as dependent on the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh’s personalized outreach, especially in Malwa where the Sangh has done tremendous grassroots work since the days of the late Kushabhau Thakre. Born to a Chandraseniya Kayastha Prabhu (CSK) family in MP’s Dhar, he was the BJP’s national president from 1998 to 2000. It was shortly before his death in 2003 that the party formed a government in the state under Uma Bharti.

Thakre built a cadre-driven, not a personality-oriented party. The organisational strength that first fetched the BJP power, held it in good stead in the 2008 and 2013 polls. “The party is the brand here, with or without Narendra Modi and Amit Shah,” noted a former BJP MP. “We lost actually when the duo campaigned in 2018.”

The remark wasn’t aimed at running down the central leadership-- accused of remote control in hushed voices—but to drive home the indispensability of the party’s organisational muscle. Inherent to it was the attendant concern over the electoral fallout from cadre alienation.

Economic gains mitigate the impact of the temple mishap

Take the case of the holy city of Ujjain. As an administrative division, it constitutes the core of Malwa with six other districts: Ratlam, Mandsaur, Neemuch, Shajapur, Dewas and Agarmalwa. An established BJP-RSS stronghold, it gave the saffron party 17 of its 29 assembly seats last time. Local observers forecast a fall in the tally on account of resentment against incumbent MLAs and the workers’ lackadaisical participation. A Ujjain-based journalist, Nirkut Bhargava said: “In 2018, people were angry. This time even BJP workers are unhappy.”

To shore up its prospects, the BJP’s spotlight is on dipping into religious sentiments on the Sanatan Dharma controversy, the upcoming inauguration (announced through giant hoardings) of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, Ujjain’s Mahakaal corridor and the Israeli offensive in Gaza against (Muslim) Palestine. The Congress’ ripostes aren’t devoid of religious tropes including its CM candidate, Kamal Nath’s projection of himself as a Hanuman-bhakt. The jury’s is out on whether the saffron brigade can be beaten on the turf on which it bats the best.

The much-hyped ₹350 crore Mahakal corridor had come in for serious public scrutiny when a squall brought down the newly built saptrishi statues shortly after the PM inaugurated it earlier this year. Despite the brouhaha, a seemingly complacent Congress hasn’t been able to capitalise on the issue. The slip-up shows its organisational shortcomings.

Supportive popular voices around the Mahakaal complex were endorsed by Bhargava, who said the development work has buoyed the local economy. Real estate prices are up in the city, business is better at eateries and shops selling flowers/puja saamagree (worship material). Gains have accrued to ancillary outlets dependent on religious tourism. If the projected ₹5000 crore investment in the hospitality/ medical care sectors fructifies, its ripple effect will be felt in Indore which is over an hour’s drive away.

SOS that helped Chouhan

The CM’s diminished standing among party workers has apparently caused the hiatus one sees between him and the central leadership. He leads the charge but isn’t the party’s declared face. Why then have a leader with a fading profile steward the campaign?

The answer to that came in Mahakoshal. There the party has fielded four sitting MPs in the assembly polls to swing the Congress-inclined region in its favour. Two of these MPs, Faggan Singh Kulaste (ST) and Prahlad Patel (OBC) hope to become CM. Very much in that category is Union agriculture minister Narendra Singh Tomar contesting from Morena’s Dimni.

At Narsinghpur, where Patel is the candidate, a senior party hand talked of SOS messages to Delhi when Chouhan’s name did not figure in the party’s first list of candidates. He said: “We let them know that we’d be straightaway two percent down in vote share if he’s denied a ticket.”

But by what calculation was the loss percentage arrived at? The question is pertinent as in Ujjain one heard identical claims of a two percent cut in anti-incumbency on account of the CM’s Ladli Behna direct cash transfer scheme for women. Ubiquitous across the state are banners with slogans hailing the largess: “ ₹1250 (monthly cash transfer) bana ladli behnon ki atmnirbharta ka aadhar. Agey milenge teen hazaar. Phir iss bar bhajpa (BJP) sarkar.” ( ₹1250 became the basis of self-reliance of our dear sisters. They will get three thousand going ahead. Once again, the BJP government.)

Even a district BJP office bearer in Narsinghpur who claimed nothing moved in the state without underhand payments confessed: “Laldi Behna may save us. Warna safaya thaa (else we’d have been wiped out).”

Of all the places, cash transfers earn maximum electoral dividends in tribal-dominated areas such as Mandla (in Mahakoshal). In fact, Kulaste, another union minister and the BJP’s foremost tribal face is contesting from the district’s Niwas seat.

Last week, a tribal woman, Ajab Kali Patta, stood a hundred metres from where the minister addressed a meeting. She was keen on seeing Chouhan continue in office. Why? As Laldli Behna, she gets ₹1250 per month; up from the ₹1000 she received a couple of months ago. That helps her pay for her three daughters’ school education.

But a tribal boy who overheard her speak butted in to suggest the government’s affirmative outreach was lopsided. Many women in the area weren’t benefitted. The same was true of the Ujjawala scheme for subsidized cooking gas. A quick survey among a group of tribal women squatting under a thatched roof in Mandla’s Jhjhari village threw up a poor review of Ujjawala. Likewise, a chat with construction workers in Jabalpur’s Vijay Nagar yielded a mixed response. A few received cheap cooking gas or Laldi Behna cash. Others did not.

The STs have a 21% share of the state’s population, as per the 2011 census. Conscious of the electoral impact of freebies, even if uneven, the Congress is engaging in competitive welfarism through generous counter-promises. Regardless of their deleterious side effects, such as alcoholism, labour shortage, rampant idling or malingering, the value of cash transfers is time-tested among poor tribals and scheduled castes. There are 47 ST, 35 SC and 148 general seats. Historically, the party that gets around 50 of the 82 reserved seats has formed governments in MP.

In 2018, the Congress wrested 47 of these seats to win the state, albeit for only 15 months before defections brought down Kamal Nath’s regime. The party needs a robust organisational push matching that of the BJP, howsoever enfeebled, to retain the numbers. “Reserved seats are won through the hard work of party cadres unlike general constituencies where individual candidates with good image can succeed,” opined a civil servant with experience of administering tribal districts. Unlike in the past, when it was disciplined and dissidence-free, the BJP’s thrust in these areas will require greater RSS reinforcement. It remains to be seen whether the Congress which is used to missing the bus, can seize the opportune moment.

But thus far, the party led by Kamal Nath hasn’t mobilised leaders from adjoining states to bolster its prospects. In contrast, the BJP has an MP designated to micro-manage party work in each of the state’s 10 administrative divisions. It has, for instance, leaders coming in from Gujarat’s Dahod to camp and canvass in tribal-dominated Jhabua and Alirajpur in Malwa-Nimar. The story is the same elsewhere.

Unable to match the BJP’s resources and reach, the Congress, in recent years, has tended to start its campaign late to save money and peak at the right time. The tactics worked in Karnataka where the BJP sidelined BS Yediyurappa, the way Chouhan has almost been in MP. Many observers believe that Congress, in its over-confidence, has tactically faltered in not tying up with smaller outfits. For instance, the Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP) is in an alliance now with the Bahujan Samaj Party. Together they can chip away critical ST-SC votes in close contests.

One has to be a soothsayer to forecast the future in a state where the vote difference between principal contenders is wafer-thin. Both sides have played whack-a-mole on announcing tickets leaving many displeased. The gainer will be the one that douses bushfires better to contain rebellious candidatures.

HT’s veteran political editor, Vinod Sharma, brings together his four-decade-long experience of closely tracking Indian politics, his intimate knowledge of the actors who dominate the political theatre, and his keen eye which can juxtapose the past and the present in his weekly column, Distantly Close

vinodsharma@hindustantimes.com

The views expressed are personal