The shattered calm has raised questions about the government’s claims of normalcy returning to Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). One indicator of normalcy often quoted is the record tourist arrivals in the Union Territory. Media reports indicate that a very large number of tourists have cancelled their scheduled trips and those currently in Kashmir have cut short their holidays. In addressing the issue of normalcy, it is crucial to recognise that terrorist actions are not solely aimed at their immediate victims but are carefully designed to influence a broader public audience. Terrorism is a battle of the narratives where every attack is aimed at dominating headlines, instilling fear, and creating a perception of insecurity. As American political analyst Bruce Hoffman points out, “Terrorism is designed to create power where there is none or to consolidate power where there is little. Through the publicity generated by their violence, terrorists seek to obtain the leverage, influence and power they otherwise lack”.

The Pahalgam attack will certainly create ripples. The livelihoods of locals dependent on the tourist industry will be hit. Images of weeping survivors amidst dead bodies lying on the ground have led to outrage in the country. However, even as we deal with the repercussions of the attack, it would be unwise to jump to the conclusion that years of effort to bring down levels of violence in J&K have now gone to waste. Such an assertion would directly reinforce the narrative that the terrorists and their handlers in Pakistan want to push.

Horrific as this attack is, it does not mean that J&K will now descend into chaos with terrorists running amok. The government has responded swiftly against Pakistan, holding the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 in abeyance “until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism.” In addition, the strength of the high commissions was brought down, visas for Pakistani citizens were cancelled, and the Attari-Wagah border closed.

We could see further action in the coming days, and the use of military force by India cannot be ruled out at this stage. PM Narendra Modi has clearly stated that “India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth”.

Rhetoric from Pakistan has sharpened. Much of it is concerned with how the future stoppage of river waters could devastate Pakistan. Therefore, there is talk of water wars and Pakistani politician Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s boast of Indian blood flowing in the Indus. And there is the usual brandishing of the nuclear capability that Pakistan possess to throw up the spectre of a devastating nuclear holocaust in South Asia if India resorts to the use of military force.

Pakistan’s nuclear blackmail has run its course, but Rawalpindi still feels it has some stamina to persist. Therefore, Pakistani generals think that they can continue using terrorism as a State policy, behind the shield of nuclear weapons. That is where the danger lies -- when you have straitjacketed your strategic thinking while the adversary is setting new rules.

We are likely to see heightened tensions along the India-Pakistan border in the coming weeks. This is already visible in the incidents of firing that have broken out along the Line of Control.

The ceasefire understanding of 2021 is looking increasingly fragile and could become the first casualty of Pahalgam. While addressing the immediate aftermath of the Pahalgam massacre remains crucial, developing a comprehensive, long-term strategy to deter Pakistan from using terrorism against India is equally imperative. Some argue that the ingrained hostility of the Pakistani army towards India may be inherently resistant to conventional deterrence methods. As American political scientists Christine Fair explains: “The Pakistan army views its struggle with India in existential terms… Pakistan’s army will insist on action at almost any cost, even that of presiding over a hollow State.”

Notwithstanding the ideological rigidness of the Pakistan’s army, India today has enough tools in its comprehensive national power to bring pressure to bear on Pakistan. The Pahalgam incident has brought together all political parties in a display of unity, demonstrating commendable national solidarity. This unity should make it easier to craft a strategy that is comprehensive, consistent, and robust enough to withstand fluctuations in domestic politics.

In the darkness of the Pahalgam strategy, finding reasons for optimism is challenging. Yet, one positive development has emerged — the widespread condemnation by the people of J&K against the civilian massacre. Protests and demonstrations across the Union Territory have unequivocally rejected terrorism, providing the Centre with a valuable opportunity to reinforce this sentiment and diminish local support for terrorist activities. In the last few years, the residents of Kashmir have increasingly experienced the benefits of relative peace; a thoughtful and sustained outreach by the government now could significantly strengthen these gains.

Lieutenant General (retired) Deependra Singh Hooda is the co-founder of the Council for Strategic and Defence Research and a senior fellow at the Delhi Policy Group. The views expressed are personal