Modi went ahead on a marathon tour of the country and has maintained his popularity despite the ups and downs since then. No PM has been able to maintain such ‘consistent’ popularity yet. You may recall Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi. But remember, Nehru had the aura of being India’s first PM. In Indira’s case, the resounding 1971 victory was a big image booster. Times, technology, and expectations have changed dramatically since. Despite all this, Modi has retained his allure.

The recent Karnataka assembly elections are an example. The BJP put all its weight on the wheel, but the results were not favourable. Why? The stigma of ‘forty per cent government’ was difficult to overcome. The Congress heightened the politics surrounding this allegation and did not allow it to subside. Previously, an attempt was made to entrap Modi in the same manner. During the last general election, the slogan chowkidar chor hai was used. However, it proved to be ineffective. This time, an attempt is being made to create political tensions over the Adani issue.

Modi’s success is the result of a simple and well-targeted approach, which asserts that the word of the government’s work should reach everyone. Through its welfare programmes, the Manmohan Singh government was able to lift around 270 million Indians out of poverty. Compare that with Modi’s current tenure. Many today are struggling from the impact of covid, unemployment, and inflation, yet Modi’s image appears intact. Besides delivering direct advantages to farmers, the policy of providing free foodgrains to 820 million people, other welfare initiatives have made a significant difference for him.

With his strong messaging, social welfare programmes, and careful use of religion, Modi has formed a new political myth.

The question now is whether, like in Himachal and Karnataka, the BJP does not win the requisite number of seats in five other states where assembly elections will be held this year, would it have an impact on the 2024 election? Even though the BJP was disappointed in all these states last time, Modi won a landslide victory in the Lok Sabha elections in the same states. People in our constantly evolving democracy understand that assembly and Lok Sabha elections are distinct, and they have no difficulty choosing two different parties for distinct duties.

Despite this, Opposition unity will gain traction in the coming days. Nitish Kumar has hinted at a forthcoming large Opposition mobilisation in Patna. Sharad Pawar has reaffirmed his commitment to unity, and Mamata Banerjee is giving mixed signals. It reminds us of Vishwanath Pratap Singh’s formula. Knowing that perfect Opposition unity was unlikely, Singh pushed to field only one candidate against the ruling party in each constituency. Nitish Kumar is also attempting this. After meeting Sonia and Rahul Gandhi, he launched his campaign. Is he completely backed by the Congress? Even if the Congress supports him wholeheartedly, the politically mature CM of Bihar has to solve many political riddles. The anti-BJP camp has lots of contradictions.

If Nitish succeeds, the BJP will undoubtedly confront new challenges, but Modi has arrived at this point by consistently fighting and conquering obstacles. He’s always been good at ‘rebranding’ himself. His upcoming litmus test will be the next general election.

Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. The views expressed are personal