Madhya Pradesh assembly elections 2018: BJP banks on memory of Congress rule, OBC votes, organisation

In Narsinghpur’s Sarra village, a group of elderly men are sitting at a tea shop. Shiv Charan Kahar, Narendra Rajput and Prem belong to different castes.

But they all support the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for the same reason.

“Earlier, we had no road. Now, we have a road that connects us to the highway. Earlier, there was so much dirt. Now, there is cleanliness. Earlier, there was no electricity. And now, we get power for over 20 hours,” says Kahar.

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To elect a government, argues Rajput, you have to see what it has done compared to the past. “No one can deny Shivraj Singh Chouhan has brought vikas (development) to Madhya Pradesh. What did we have earlier?”

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi and chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan speak in rallies in Madhya Pradesh, their focus is on positing the achievements of the last 15 years to those of the preceding Congress governments. And, that is because the BJP feels that it has to trigger memories of what it calls the “past misrule” of Congress chief minister Digvijaya Singh’s government between 1993 and 2003.

The Congress recognises this — it holds these memories responsible for its consecutive losses. And to avoid it from returning, it has kept Singh away from the public glare.

If the Congress can take heart from visible voter fatigue, anti-incumbency, Dalit and rural distress, the BJP can take solace from three other factors.

The party appears to enjoy the support of the numerically significant, diverse Other Backward Classes (OBC) groups. Arithmetic and organisational depth continue to give it an advantage.

OBC consolidation

Across constituencies in the Mahakoshal, Bundelkhand and Chambal regions, the BJP is getting support from OBC groups, who constitute 40% of the state’s population. In Narshinghpur’s Gotegaon, Ved Prakash is a farmer from the Lodh caste. In his native Ataria village, Prakash has a list of grievances with the BJP — especially lack of payments to sugarcane farmers, and procedural difficulties in the Bhavantar scheme. But he says he will support the party nonetheless. “The BJP is strong in our samaj. The Congress may improve but cannot defeat them in the election,” Prakash says. It is not just the Lodhs. In Sagar’s Khurai district, a major electoral battle is under way between BJP’s sitting MLA and minister Bhupendra Singh and Congress’ former MLA Arunoday Chaubey. Singh belongs to the Dangi Thakur community, considered an OBC group.

Balram Dangi and Gandharva Singh are sitting outside a shop in Mukarampur village. Both are not particularly happy with the BJP’s governance record. Will they turn against the party in that case? Dangi lets out an emphatic “no”. “We have always been with the BJP and will remain so.”

This support is apparent in Banda as well, where Kushwaha Patels, despite anger against the local MLA, say they will back their old party. This pattern of OBC support is visible in Chambal’s Morena district as well. In Morena town, Narayan Singh Yadav, a former contractor, says he will back the BJP. Why?

“It has done good work and brought many schemes.”

In neighbouring Sumawali, Anil Gaur is pursuing a diploma in technical education. His family of farmers feels let down by the Chouhan government. But Gaur insists on backing the BJP as he sees it as “the only party capable of bringing development”. To be sure, OBCs are a huge and diverse group. These voices reflect support of a chunk for the BJP but with the Congress also putting up a substantial number of OBC candidates — party leaders say close to 40% of their candidates in non-reserved seats are OBCs — they too will be able to win the support of these groups.

It is also important to note that OBCs are also farmers — and the farmers are disenchanted with the BJP; whether their caste or class identity prevail will be important to watch.

But what explains the support of large sections of backward groups for the BJP? The fact that Modi is an OBC and has often emphasised his identity, the fact that is an OBC; the fact that BJP’s breakthrough in the state came as it creates a wide coalition of upper castes, OBCs and tribals, and had Uma Bharti and Babulal Gaur — both OBCs — as the chief ministers before Chouhan; and that the Congress has only woken up to the power of this constituency now explains the loyalty of many from these castes.

A central BJP leader, involved in poll campaign, says, “Our core vote (upper castes and OBCs) will stick with us. That is what we think will give us an edge. And we will convert these votes because of our organisation.”

Organisation and arithmetic

Madhya Pradesh is among the oldest bastions of the BJP and of its precursor, the Bharatiya Jana Sangh. It is also a stronghold of the party’s ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and its affiliates.

The party has used its membership campaigns, schemes targeted at beneficiaries, booth committees, advantage of resources gained through years in power, wide networks in each constituency, party chief Amit Shah’s micro management and repeated visits to smoothen intra party feuds, data-intensive election planning and a campaign blitz to strengthen the organisation.

It is this organisation, party leaders hope, that will finally bring the voters — including the somewhat ambivalent ones — to the booth. “The perception is eventually that BJP will form the government just like in Gujarat. That is what we have to capitalise on,” says the leader quoted above.

The party is also relying on one other element.

In Chhatarpur’s Maharajpur, Pradeep Bhatt claims to have been a volunteer with the RSS’ student wing, the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP).

Bhatt is confident the BJP will return to power. “I will admit that it is not because of the chemistry necessarily. But the BJP will win because of maths, what you can call arithmetic in elections.”

Claiming that there are only two kinds of votes — pro incumbent and anti-incumbent — in an election, Bhatt said that the anti incumbent vote will get divided between the Congress, the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, and the independents.

Fear or hope

And so it may all boil down to public sentiment and judgment of governance.

Back in Narsinghpura’s Barman Kala village, Rakesh Singh Patel runs a small shop, and argues the government has done more than any other regime. “It has brought roads and electricity; it builds homes in villages; it gives allowances; it has empowered our daughters. What did Congress do? We should all support it (The BJP).”

Not everyone buys the comparison. Prabhu Dayal, a retired government servant, says he was a BJP voter but now plans to support the Congress. “We backed the BJP in 2008 and in 2013 as it had done a better job than the Congress. But a lot of vikas is natural with time. The BJP cannot take all the credit. Rajasthan changes governments every five years. Do they not have vikas?”

Whether Dayal’s wish for more progress or Patel’s fear of the past decay prevails may finally determine the BJP’s prospects in the elections.

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