Despite fall in vote share, Congress rose in recent bypolls

In keeping with the pan-India trend, the Congress lost significant ground in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Punjab. Between 2009 and 2014, the Congress lost more than 10 percentage points in terms of vote share and its tally came down from eight to three. The party finished third, behind the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in terms of seats. Punjab looked like it could also go the Delhi way, with the AAP replacing the Congress as the number two political player.

However, the Congress has made a significant turnaround from its 2014 setback in the state. It was the only political party that increased in vote share in the 2017 assembly elections in comparison to the 2014 polls. This helped the party get a two-thirds majority in the state assembly.

The Congress’s gains in 2017 were spread across the state, as the party increased its vote share in 75% of the assembly constituencies. If the 2017 assembly results were to be extrapolated at the parliamentary constituency level, the Congress would get 11 out of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab.

The Congress has maintained its performance in subsequent bypolls and local body elections. Not only did the Congress retain the Amritsar Lok Sabha seat with a bigger margin, it also wrestled the Gurdaspur Lok Sabha and the Shahkot assembly seats from the NDA in by-elections.

The Opposition’s problems have been compounded by desertions from both the Shiromani Akali Dal and the AAP, which could make things easier for the Congress in the forthcoming elections.

To be sure, things could change as the campaign for 2019 builds up. But the Congress would enter the electoral battle in Punjab as the favourite.