Lok Sabha election results 2019: South only silver lining in Congress flop show
Both in 1989 and 1977, when the share of southern states in Congress’ Lok Sabha tally was more than 2019, the absolute number of Congress MPs from the rest of India was significantly higher than what it is today.
Out of the 52 Lok Sabha seats the Congress has got in the 2019 elections, 28 are from southern states and Union territories of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Karnataka and Puducherry.
The share of southern states and UTs, which includes Andhra Pradesh and Lakshadweep along with the ones listed above, in the Congress’s overall Lok Sabha tally in 2019 (52.8%) is the highest since 1991.
It was the highest (60%) in the 1977 elections, when the party faced a severe backlash in northern India after the emergency.
To be sure, the Congress has faced reverses in the rest of India in the 2019 elections.
Both in 1989 and 1977, when the share of southern states in Congress’ Lok Sabha tally was more than 2019, the absolute number of Congress MPs from the rest of India was significantly higher than what it is today.
The Congress has increased its number of seats from 44 to 52 between 2014 and 2019 elections. Its vote share has remained constant at around 19%.
However, there is a marked difference in the Congress’ recovery in southern states and the rest of India, both in terms of seats and vote share in the seats it contested.
It has increased its seat tally by nine in southern states between 2014 and 2019, compared to a loss of one in the rest of India.
Contested vote share of the Congress has increased by 10 percentage points between 2014 and 2019 in the southern states. It remained the same in rest of the country.
The 2019 contested vote share of the Congress in the southern states is 29.3%, compared to 23.6% in the rest of the country.
To be sure, the Congress’s ability to win seats in the South Indian states has fallen over time.
Since the 1989 general elections, the party’s strike rate – seats won over seats contested – in southern states has been higher than in rest of the country. In 2019, the Congress managed to win nearly one-third of all seats it contested in these states, which is lower than its strike rate in many elections held earlier.
For instance, the Congress managed to win more than nine in ten seats it contested in 1989 and a majority of contested seats in 2004 and 2009.
Meanwhile, the Congress party’s 2019 strike rate of 7.25% in rest of the country is its lowest ever.
