Aborted, but Citizenship (Amendment) Bill boosted BJP tally in Assam

The BJP continued its winning streak in Assam begging nine seats out of the ten it contested including Silchar in Barak Valley and even the Muslim majority Karimganj.

In 2014, the BJP had won seven out of 14 seats in Assam.

Only months ago, as protests over Citizenship (Amendment) Bill--which promises to fast track citizenship to six non-Muslim communities from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan—engulfed Assam and other Northeastern states, the saffron party looked in a tough spot. The indigenous groups opposed CAB claiming it violated the Assam Accord of 1985 while others claimed it will encourage illegal immigration.

The BJP wrested the Autonomous District Constituency from the Congress, won again in Gauhati, Tezpur, Jorhat, Mangaldoi, Lakhimpur and Dibrugarh where the local communities have been opposing the CAB. BJP’s Rajdeep Roy, expectedly defeated sitting MP Sushmita Dev in Silchar, where the dominant Bengali speaking Hindus have been demanding the CAB.

In neighbouring Karimganj, the BJP’s candidate managed to sneak through making it the first time since 1991 when the saffron party has swept Barak Valley.

The party’s vote share stood at 36.05%, just about half a percent more than the Congress which despite its tally of three seats increased its vote share by five percentage points to 35.44%. The BJP, however, contested ten seats as it left four for its allies—all of whom lost.

Senior leader and brain behind BJP’s campaign in all of Northeast including Assam, Himanta Biswa Sarma credited the BJP’s consistent performance in all parts of Assam to positive vote for development work done by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party’s organization strengthened by party president Amit Shah.

Also read: ‘People of Bengal see new ray of hope in PM Modi’s leadership’: Himanta Biswa Sarma

Prime Minister Modi made around two and half dozen trips to Northeast during his tenure during which he inaugurated long pending projects like the twin bridges on the Brahmaputra in Upper Assam.

Joydeep Biswas, an associate professor in Cachar college in Silchar said the BJP benefitted from the CAB in both the Brahmaputra Valley and the Barak Valley. Assamese voters in Brahmaputra Valley did not consider the CAB as an issue big enough to sway their choice in the polls, while in the Barak valley voters took it upon themselves to vote for the party which is pushing for it to benefit the Bengali community.

“In Silchar for example, it was complete polarization on both sides,” said Joydeep Biswas, adding how CAB aided in polarising the majority community votes in favour of the BJP.

“Modi knows how to exploit sentiment of the people,” said Tarun Gogoi, the former chief minister and senior Congress leader.

Gogoi conceded the BJP was able to use their push to the CAB in its favour in Assam.

“They used the CAB in a divisive way, telling the people openly that the threat comes from Muslims who have become a majority in several constituencies and pose a danger to the indigenous communities,” he said explaining how BJP managed to turn the issue in its favour in even the Brahmaputra Valley even as Congress kept opposing the CAB.

“It did not help the Congress in Brahmaputra Valley but cost them votes in Barak,” said Biswas.

Himanta Biswa Sarma explained how CAB helped the BJP and suggested that Congress may have fallen into BJP’s trap by making the CAB a political issue.

“CAB has helped us consolidate our votes… We never wanted to make it a political issue. It was a humanitarian issue and should have been left at that. But Congress made it a political issue. And obviously, if you polarize then counter polarization will also happen,” he said.

Sarma said how the BJP fought a battle for 50% votes in Assam and claimed that the Congress and the AIUDF fought the polls together. BJP’s assertion of this understanding gained traction as AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal, snubbed by the Congress over his alliance offer still went ahead and announced the party will contest only three seats, the ones it won in 2014.

The results show the Congress has been confined to winning three seats—Nowgong, Barpeta and Kaliabor--which have a sizeable number of Muslim voters while the AIUDF has retained Muslim majority Dhubri with Ajmal winning another term.

“The aim of the NDA was to block the Congress. We managed to do that,” said Manoj Saikia, the spokesperson of the AGP, insisting how the party even as it may have not won any of the three seats it contested but increased its vote share to 8.2%.