Why India wants four more years of George W

He may not be the most popular US President among educated Indians but there's no doubt that the Indian foreign policy establishment — cutting across party lines — would prefer to see George W. Bush re-elected as President of the United States.

This accounts for the warmth with which Manmohan Singh greeted him at their breakfast meeting on Tuesday and for the praise he showered on Bush. Of course, a domestic political preference cannot be part of stated policy as the Indian government's official response is that we have no preferences. And if John Kerry does win the elections, India will do everything it can to befriend him. So the preference remains unstated — but clear.

But why does the foreign policy establishment want Bush —- a man regarded by most educated Indians with a mixture of hostility and a derision that borders on contempt — back in the White House? Does it not hold him responsible for starting a wholly unnecessary war in Iraq? Isn't it perturbed by his closeness to General Musharraf, for whom Bush threw exactly the same kind of breakfast as he had for Manmohan Singh a day before?

The Indian position is a complex one and hinges on several assumptions. One: Bush appears to be genuinely interested in India. Shortly after he was elected, he made a sincere effort to get to know the country and its leaders. He has also spoken admiringly of India's pool of skilled professionals.

In contrast, about the only time Kerry has mentioned India during his campaign has been in the context of outsourcing. There is no evidence that he regards India as anything more than a place on the map.

Two: the Indian establishment believes that the closeness to Pakistan is a post-9/11 aberration. India is the US's natural ally. It thinks that Bush recognises this. Kerry, on the other hand, has yet to make up his mind.

On Iraq, Indian officials argue that Kerry's position is not very different from Bush's. Hardcore Democrats would prefer him to attack the war. But Kerry has always refused to do so. Likewise, he will have no alternative but to indulge Musharraf till Al-Qaeda activity in the region ceases to be a threat.

Three: despite America's post-9/11 compulsions, India has established a good working relationship with the Bush White House. On really every issue that matters, the two sides understand each other. With Kerry, we'd have to start all over again, and it's not clear that we would arrive at the same level of understanding.

And finally four: the cynical reasons. The Indian foreign policy establishment is always happier with Republican administrations because it sees Democrats as being too ideology-driven. One of the reasons why Bush is so unpopular all over the world is because of his total disregard for environmental concerns. Ironically, this suits India just fine: we don't want new international norms imposed on us.

Then there are the traditional fears. Will a Democratic administration raise human rights issues? Will it restart the debate on nuclear proliferation? What line will it take on Kashmir? Better, say officials, to stick with the devil you know than risk new uncertainties.

It is still too early to say who will win the US race but recent polls that put Bush ahead of Kerry have pleased Indian policy-makers. They would be quite happy with four more years of George W. Bush.