!Viva pop. psychology!

There is a widespread belief, in India at least, that two major religions, Islam and Roman Catholicism, oppose modern methods of contraception — a belief that plays into the hands of Hindu fundamentalists. While this may well be the official position of the Roman Catholic Church and of some prominent Islamic clerics, the reality on the ground is quite different. At least six predominantly Muslim countries — Indonesia, Bangladesh, Iran, Turkey, Tunisia and Morocco — actively promote family planning. And in one — Tunisia — polygamy has been illegal for several decades. Most of these Islamic countries have a lower population growth rate than India’s. Turning to Roman Catholic countries, Italy’s population is actually declining. Even in India, Goa (almost half of which is Catholic)is next only to Kerala in successful family planning. So, whatever the Pope may pronounce on the subject, many of his followers clearly go their own way.

Mexico, also largely Catholic, is a dramatic illustration of this. India and Mexico, both at roughly the same stage of development, though very different in size, share much in common. They have a large mass of poor people and in both, there has been a huge influx of people from the countryside to the towns. Mexico City, with a population of 20 million, is one of the largest urban complexes in the world. It has tens of thousands of street children and sprawling favelas (slums), just like Mumbai. However, it is Mexico’s success in its family planning programme that interests me and which took me recently to that country. I was part of a group of journalists and demographers from various parts of the world on a study tour conducted by the Population Institute (PI), a Washington-based non-governmental organisation that has done a great deal to highlight the population problem, particularly in relation to development and the environment.

Like India, Mexico was at one time rather blasé on the subject of population. Indeed, it initially followed a pro-natalist policy, imagining that more people translated into greater strength. Alarm bells only started ringing when, in a short period of just 30 years, 1970 to 2000, Mexico’s population doubled from 50 million to 100 million. In 1972, the average Mexican family had seven children and the annual population growth rate was 3.5 per cent, one of the highest in the world.

“The government realised that this was simply not sustainable and was eating into the country’s economic progress,” explained Larry Smith, president of the PI. “So in 1977, the Mexican president approved a national plan for family planning, in which demographic goals for the future were set.”

Fortunately, Mexico already had two essential pillars of social infrastructure in place: literacy and health. In 1930, only 28 per cent of Mexicans were literate. By 1950, the percentage had soared to 56 per cent. Today, over 90 per cent of Mexicans are literate (in India, only 65 per cent are). As for health, Mexico probably has the best public healthcare system of any major developing country (while India has one of the worst). Mexicans are provided excellent healthcare, either free or at very affordable prices. The Mexican State-run hospitals and clinics, unlike those in India, are efficient and well-staffed.

With literacy and health taken care of, a third essential component for population control was added: political commitment. A National Population Council, the highest policy-making body in the country, was set up. Chaired by the minister of the interior, it includes several ministries, all of which are linked to the population problem in some way or the other, such as education, health, finance, rural development and labour. Regular ‘assessment’ meetings on family planning are held, with the president in attendance, thus conveying the high degree of commitment at the top to the population cause. In addition, in each state there is a state population council, headed by the respective governors. NGOs and private organisations liaise with the state population councils, as they do at the federal level as well. Similarly, at the municipal level, the president of each municipality chairs the municipal population council. In other words, there is political commitment from the top levels to the bottom. Bear in mind that all this has been going on in a predominantly Roman Catholic country, with the State — and the people — disregarding official Church policy.

The results have been nothing short of spectacular. An average Mexican woman now has just two children. Mexico’s annual population growth rate has come down to 1.4 per cent and the government estimates the population will stabilise at 130 million around 2050. That will also be good news for the US. Almost one million Mexicans migrate annually to the US, most of them illegally, partly due to population pressures. There are now more Hispanics in the US, some 20 million, than Blacks, a cause for concern for quite a few Americans. With the pressure of population declining in Mexico, and the economy growing, fewer Mexicans will want to go to the US. Mexico’s current economic success is closely linked to its successful family planning programme. In the Seventies, the country’s economy grew at a commendable 7 per cent a year, but half of that growth was eaten up by the population growth rate (3.5 per cent).

Another telling statistic: in the Seventies, the economic participation of women was only 14 per cent; today, it is 40 per cent. In other words, population stabilisation in Mexico equals higher economic growth and greater gender equity.

There are many lessons here for India. First, we have badly neglected primary education, particularly for girls, and healthcare. These should now be given top priority, not just to promote family planning, but for overall economic growth. The recent budget has done well to allocate more resources in these two areas. However, allocating resources is one thing, using them effectively, another. We need better delivery systems. There lies the main challenge. Second, there must be more political commitment to the family planning cause, at every level, from the Centre to the panchayats, with active participation of NGOs and private organisations. Foolish legislation, such as barring those who have more than two children from political office, will not do. They are reminiscent of the draconian measures undertaken by Sanjay Gandhi during the Emergency, which set back the family planning programme by at least two decades.

Finally, as wide a variety of contraceptive choices should be made available to the public. We have been too reliant on female sterilisation. In India, a powerful Leftist feminist lobby, led by the likes of Brinda Karat, has opposed perfectly safe contraceptives such as injectibles and implants, even though these have become popular forms of contraception in many developing countries.

At Independence, our population was 350 million. Today, it is almost triple that figure and over 20 million people are being added every year — people who have to be housed, educated, fed and provided with jobs. Stabilising the population — that, too, voluntarily — is our number one challenge.

Rahul Singh has been a consultant with UNFPA and is the author of Family Planning Success Stories: Asia, Latin America, Africa