Outcome of polls at 23 seats almost certain

Predicting the outcome of an election may not always be an easy task but one may be able to make some safe guesses in at least 23 of the 70 Delhi constituencies.

Eleven of these have gone to the BJP in both the assembly elections held so far and twelve have stayed with the Congress both times.

Despite the huge anti-BJP wave during the 1998 elections, 11 of the sitting BJP MLAs were able to retain their seats for the second time, albeit with lower margins.

Also twelve sitting Congress MLAs rode back to power, bettering their 1993 margins, perhaps because of the onion votes.

“The BJP has traditionally held the constituencies dominated by the Punjabi-vaish communities and despite the anti-incumbency wave and the final straw of the onion scarcity, eleven MLAs were able to retain their seats,” said a political leader.

This perhaps explains why BJP stalwarts like Dr Harshvardhan, Jagdish Mukhi, Harsharan Singh Balli, Ram Bhaj and Nand Kishore Garg sailed home dry.

On the other hand, the Congress capitalised on its vote bank of slum dwellers, resettlement colonies and unauthorised colonies — in areas like Sultanpuri, Mangolpuri, Hastsal, Geeta Colony, Ambedkar Nagar and Trilokpuri — to not only retain the seats but also hike up the victory margin.

“Constituencies like Rajouri Garden and Saket also have caches of voters who fall in this category and that is perhaps why the Congress came back in these seats,” added the leader.

However, whether the MLAs in these seats are able to do a hat trick by repeating their victory this time as well remains to be seen.