Withdrawal of monsoon may begin from Sept 22, says IMD

The Southwest Monsoon — among the wettest in years with aggregate rainfall 8% more than the long period average during the season — may begin its withdrawal from some parts of northwest India around September 22.

If that happens, it will be the earliest the monsoon has started withdrawing from northwest India in 8 years. Last year, it started withdrawing only around September 25, and in 2022, IMD had announced on September 30 that monsoon has withdrawn from Punjab, Chandigarh Delhi, parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Rajasthan. It however continued raining and experts said IMD had announced commencement of withdrawal prematurely.

“Withdrawal begins from Rajasthan. It doesn’t mean monsoon will withdraw from all parts of northwest India at the same time. We can expect rain before that as a low-pressure area is expected to travel across central India to Gujarat and Rajasthan next week,” said M Mohapatra, director general IMD.

“No significant weather system is likely to affect any part of the country during the week. Scattered to fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over south peninsular India (specifically over Karnataka and Tamil Nadu) during some days of the week. No significant rainfall activity likely over rest parts of the country during the week. Overall, rainfall is likely to be normal to above normal over south peninsular India and below normal over rest parts of the country. Conditions are likely to become favourable for withdrawal of southwest monsoon from some parts of northwest India during 2nd half of the week,” IMD said in its extended range forecast for September 19 to 25 week.

There is 22.7% excess rain in the first 12 days of September with 32.3% excess over northwest India; 47.4% deficiency over east and northeast India; 45.1% excess over central India; 64.1% excess over peninsular India.

Overall, since the season began, there is 8% excess rainfall since June 1. There is 19% excess over central India; 5% excess over northwest India; 16% deficiency over east and northeast India and 24% excess over Peninsular India. Monsoon normally begins withdrawal on September 17 and withdraws completely from the country on October 15.

A late withdrawal, especially one accompanied with active rainy spells till the end, could pose a threat to crops as they begin to mature for harvesting in the month of October.