What gains will Babulal Marandi’s return bring to the BJP?
Since its formation, the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha – Prajatantrik has fought three state and three national elections in Jharkhand: one each in 2009, 2014, and 2019.
Jharkhand’s first chief minister Babulal Marandi merged his party, the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha – Prajatantrik (JVM-P), with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Monday. Marandi had quit the BJP in 2006 to form the JVM-P. How has the JVM-P performed in elections until now?
Since its formation, the JVM-P has fought three state and three national elections in Jharkhand: one each in 2009, 2014, and 2019. Its seat share in both state and national elections has declined in each successive election. This has happened despite the JVM-P fighting the elections in different alliances. In the 2009 assembly election, it had an alliance with Congress and fought only 25 of 81 seats. In the 2014 assembly election, the party contested 73 seats and had an alliance with the Trinamool Congress on the rest. In the 2019 assembly election, it contested all the seats on its own. In Lok Sabha elections on the other hand, the party had an alliance only in 2019.
Also read: Why Babulal Marandi’s comeback is important for BJP
Chart 1: Seat share of JVM-P in AEs and GEs
Moreover, while Marandi’s return to the BJP fold might be an effort by the BJP to the boost its prospects in the Scheduled Tribe (ST) community, his party, the JVM-P, did not have any major influence in ST-dominant areas. Its vote share in ST reserved areas has been lower than in those not reserved for STs. Since constituencies are reserved for ST candidates on the basis of share of ST population in a constituency, ST reserved seats can be said to have higher share of ST population than those not reserved for the community.
Chart 2: Vote share of JVM-P in ST and non-ST reserved seats
These statistics should be inferred to conclude that the JVM-P merger will not lead to gains for the BJP. Since it started contesting election, the JVM-P has consistently played spoiler for the BJP. A party is said to have played spoiler for the party finishing second in a constituency if it polls more votes than the victory margin. The BJP can hope to see substantive gains on at least front with Marandi joining back the party.
Chart 3: Seats spoiled by JVM-P in assembly elections
