View: Why PM Modi's third term is historic, and why Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar won't dump BJP?

A day after an underwhelming electoral result for the BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met his cabinet colleagues at Lok Kalyan Marg office and delivered the bottom line that the NDA was going to form the government at the Centre for the third time.

He basically told his ministers that unexpected results are part of the electoral game but the fundamental fact was that the BJP had more seats than the INDI alliance and that the NDA was forming the government for the third time.

At a time when there is a global churn and uncertainty with the restless public favouring more change than continuity, the world leaders have welcomed the return of Narendra Modi as the prime minister of India for the third time. Fact is that to date, no less than 121 world leaders have congratulated him and this includes 83 heads of state and heads of government.

Apart from the top leadership of organizations like the European Union and UN bodies like the WHO, the P-5 and the QUAD leaders have personally called up and congratulated PM Modi.

While China has used its propaganda media to hit out at the PM for unexpected electoral results, the world leadership has reacted in the way it has due to the importance of the verdict and the weight of India. The world leaders like US President Joe Biden, Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have also reacted enthusiastically due to their personal relations with PM Modi.

All understand that getting elected for the third time in a turbulent world is an extraordinary achievement and their response to PM Modi's re-election is also directly proportional to their expectation from India in future.

Add to this, no less than seven leaders from Indian neighbourhood are expected to attend the swearing-in ceremony for PM Modi on Sunday evening, with leaders like Maldives president Mohamed Muizzu being more than keen to mark their presence in India.

Although the world leadership had regaled the return of PM Modi for the third time, it is also time for the BJP's top leadership to do serious introspection on what went wrong with the final result and what should be done to address it with Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly elections round the corner.

Many may not know it but PM Modi is the most ruthless auto-corrector when it comes to electoral reach of the BJP and the results. It is quite evident that he will be extremely positive externally but will do a ruthless self-introspection internally to correct what went wrong on June 4.

Even though many in the media are trying to play on perceived fault-lines within the NDA and the number vulnerability of Modi 3.0, the fact is that both TDP supremo Chandrababu Naidu and JD (U) boss Nitish Kumar are virtually the same age as PM Modi and are looking towards establishing legacy in their own states.

ALSO READ: Narendra Modi unanimously elected as leader of NDA Parliamentary party; Chandrababu Naidu, Nitish Kumar back his name

TDP's Chandrababu Naidu wants to leave a mark on Andhra Pradesh by making it the most sought-after investment destination in India and wants support from Centre for building the state. He could not care less about what portfolios his party gets at the Centre as he believes that just like PM has a vision for India, he has a vision for Andhra.

JD (U) boss and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar has had a long innings at both the state as CM and as a central minister. He will be using his relationship with PM Modi to development the state of Bihar as his political career goes into twilight zone. He also wants a lasting legacy for himself in Bihar and hence needs support from PM Modi.

While it is quite evident that PM Modi will be able to provide a stable government at the Centre, the big question is what went wrong with the 2024 electoral results, particularly in UP and Maharashtra. One must not forget that the NDA managed to bag all the Assembly elections including Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh and crown jewel Odisha.
 

What went wrong in Lok Sabha elections?

Given the complex nature of politics in both UP and Maharashtra, the unexpected result for the BJP in these states is a total of a number of factors and cannot be pin-pointed to a single factor. 

In UP, there was an internal issue of Lok Sabha candidate selection within the BJP central leadership, the state leadership and the RSS. The second reason was that while the leaders got caught in their own self-propaganda of sweeping UP, the public also got caught in the self-deception and stayed at home thinking the party was as it is coming to power.

Third reason was the shift of Dalit votes from the BJP and Bahujan Samaj Party towards the INDI alliance, which topped up the Muslim vote for them and made the Opposition breach the tape. 

The upper caste Thakur community also had local issues with the candidates in UP, and with no over-arching issue dominating the election, it all boiled down to the local grievances at the constituency level. To make matters worse were uncalled for statements from senior BJP leaders stating words to the effect that the party did not need the RSS workers and that issues like Kashi and Mathura were not on agenda.

All this came in the heat of election and ensured that the hard-working Karyakartas preferred to stay at home rather than drag their voters to the polling booth. While the Muslims voted en-masse for Opposition to foil the perceived image of mega march of BJP in UP, its own cadre got caught in its own self-propaganda or local politics and let go of polling booth management.

Another key factor was the shifting of UP State in charge Sunil Bansal to the frontlines of Odisha, Telangana and West Bengal from UP. While he delivered in both Odisha and Telangana, his successors in UP like the in-charge in Punjab were unfamiliar with the idiom and ethos of the states.

While everything is 20/20 post event and can be justified, the fact is that splitting of both Shiv Sena and NCP did not go well with the electorate, particularly the inclusion of Ajit Pawar, who had a public image different from what the BJP supporters wanted out of the party in Maharashtra.

There were multiple factors in Maharashtra with rivalry within the BJP state leadership and a lack of electoral synergy among the NDA allies on the ground. 

While Modi haters came out in full numbers, the supporters again got caught in local issues and stayed out of the exercise. They got complacent. The underwhelming results in Rajasthan and Haryana were a reflection of the state leadership with the fall-out of famers movement used to advantage by the Opposition in Haryana and for that matter Punjab.

Knowing the nature of both PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, the party will not go into depression but move into top gear as soon as PM Modi and his cabinet get sworn in. 

The party and the RSS top leadership have already had a dialogue at the top level on how to improve coordination for the future and communication with the electorate will be improved both at the party and state leadership level. As one of key allies of NDA told me that he lost his state in the past as he was more busy setting up IT parks, building roads and ports rather than communicating with his supporters. The BJP leadership should rectify this mistake as it will cost votes in future.