Lok Sabha results: AIADMK’s future at stake in Tamil Nadu as NDA looks to gain ground

Tamil Nadu witnessed a triangular contest this general elections with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerging as the third front into the Dravidian arena. The fight which was majorly between the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and AIADMK since 1967, BJP this time has made its mark through heavy campaigning led by its state and national leaders.

Another party in the fray is the Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK) led by Tamil nationalist S Seeman that emerged as the third largest party in the 2021 assembly elections behind DMK and AIADMK with a close to 7% vote share.

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Major exit polls have predicted a big win for the DMK-led alliance, and a higher number of seats for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) than the AIADMK. Except BJP, the Dravidian majors have rejected the exit polls, with the AIADMK exhuding confidence of winning more seats than the BJP.

Axis My India predicted 20-22 parliamentary seats to DMK, 6-8 to Congress, 0-2 to AIADMK, and 1-3 for the NDA. C-Voter predicted 37-39 seats for INDIA bloc, up to 2 seats for the NDA and none for the AIADMK.

For the ruling DMK, one of the key constituents of the INDIA bloc in the state, this is a test of their three years in governance. DMK president and chief minister MK Stalin had swept 38 out of the 39 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and has kept the same rainbow alliance intact where Congress is their principal ally.

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For the principal opposition AIADMK, this is the first major election after Edappadi Palaniswami, popularly known as EPS, emerged as the party general secretary in 2022 ousting O Panneerselvam (OPS). AIADMK has vastly fielded middle-level functionaries as candidates with no seniors and stalwarts.

For the BJP, this election is about proving that they have made inroads into Tamil Nadu. The party is hoping to raise its vote share to double digits. They aim to emerge second and push former ally AIADMK to the third position in as many Lok Sabha seats as possible.

Political analyst Maalan Narayanan said, “If BJP either gets more vote share or seats than the AIADMK, it is going to be very difficult for EPS and the future of AIADMK.”

“EPS may be forced to go into some compromises with the various factions. But, if the BJP comes third, then EPS will strengthen his position and alliance and attempt to bring back allies who have joined the BJP,” he added.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the AIADMK and BJP contested together. The AIADMK cut ties with the BJP last September blaming the latter’s state president K Annamalai for talking ill about their late supremo J Jayalalithaa.

A day ahead of counting, leader of opposition (LoP) EPS on Monday visited a temple in his native Salem while chief minister Stalin paid tributes to his father and five time chief minister M Karunanidhi on his 101st birth anniversary.

More than 38,000 personnel will be involved in the counting process for the 39 Lok Sabha constituencies. As many as 62.3 million voters exercised their franchise with 950 candidates in fray when the southern state went to polls in a single phase on April 19.

The BJP contested in 23 seats this time. Their allies such as the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) on 10, Tamil Maanila Congress on three, Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam on two and OPS in one as an independent. The DMK contested in 22, Congress on nine, VCK on two, CPI and CPI(M) on two each and MDMK contested on one seat.