The year ahead: Where to?

A preview of what lies ahead in the new year.

The new Covid-19 wave in China

Three years after it was first identified there, the coronavirus disease began spreading through China again in mid-December. According to the country’s chief epidemiologist, Wu Zunyou, China is in the grip of the first of three waves of Covid-19. He predicts that the third wave will likely abate by mid-March. Experts around the world, meanwhile, are forecasting between 1 million and 2 million deaths from the virus in China across 2023, though any estimates are hard with so little data forthcoming from the Chinese government. The soaring infections will keep people at home and cause a slump in travel and economic activity in what is now the world’s second-largest economy (after the US). Governments around the world are bracing for how this will affect Covid tallies and economies around the world. The fallout for India may include the return of mask mandates in public spaces, and even a possible rise in the number of Covid-19 infections if new variants take shape, though large parts of the population remain buffered by rounds of vaccination.

Russia, Ukraine and the energy crisis

European nations reached a deal in December to cap natural gas prices at €180/MWh, ending months of political wrangling over whether to intervene in an energy crisis precipitated by a combination of factors: the Russian pipeline explosion in September, supply chain disruptions linked to the war waged by Russia in Ukraine, and the winter boom in demand. While the price cap mechanism may help prevent extreme swings, it could leave European Union nations vulnerable to vagaries in supply, particularly as demand grows from willing markets in Asia and other parts of the Global South. The silver lining, albeit a thin and uncertain one, is that this could make 2023 the year when major global economies push harder for shifts to renewable energy sources. Of course, it could also precipitate levels of political instability as governments come under increasing pressure from voters to act to safeguard national interests.

The climate crisis and the approach to 1.2 degrees

This will most likely be the hottest year on record. The hope that humanity could cap this warming at 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels is long gone; the 1.1 degree C marker has been passed too. This year, global average temperatures are expected to be about 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial levels of 1850. Studies estimate that the effects are being felt by an estimated 85% of the planet’s population, in the form of intensifying storms and wildfires; unseasonal rain, snow and heat; unprecedented flooding and drought, among other things. As entire nations prepare to be wiped out, Tuvalu will become the first nation to go virtual. The tiny island country is taking what elements of its history, heritage and culture that it can, and preserving them on a metaverse platform. The climate crisis will accelerate humanitarian crises around the world in 2023, adding to the issues created by armed conflict and economic downturns, according to a study by the NGO International Rescue Committee.

The rise of right-wing extremism

Between veteran leader Benjamin Netanyahu’s return to power as the head of the most right-wing coalition in Israel’s history and German authorities carrying out the biggest-ever raid targeting right-wing extremists who were allegedly planning to violently overthrow the government, the far-right had a big year in 2022. Inflation, the energy crisis and ballooning distress migration numbers are likely to intensify hyper-nationalistic tendencies around the world in 2023. This could also be the year that democracy fights back, as leaders from a new generation seek new ways to govern and mediate the conflicting demands and rising concerns of their citizens. Social media platforms continue to play a bafflingly big role, with Facebook and Instagram’s parent company Meta making the right noises about the impact of disinformation and misinformation on democratic processes, and Twitter remaining an unpredictable unknown, at least for now.

India’s troubled neighbourhood

Sri Lanka is still in the grips of its worst economic crisis in history. Pakistan’s political instability is worsening its economic condition. The country is struggling to pay for its oil imports and to meet energy demand as its foreign exchange reserves dwindle to under $7 billion, equivalent to just over one month of imports. Nepal’s economy is still in the doldrums from the pandemic, which devastated the vital tourism industry and dried up remittances from Nepalis working abroad. In Myanmar and Afghanistan, hardliners are in power, the economies are struggling to stabilise, and deteriorating humanitarian conditions are being reported. China has yet to get a handle on its fresh wave of Covid-19 cases. The combination of the pandemic, its economic fallout and the fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine have pushed countries in India’s neighbourhood towards unprecedented levels of instability.

The US and its status as superpower

US President Joe Biden’s administration fared better than expected in the 2022 midterm elections. The Democratic Party managed to hold the Senate and had a better-than-expected showing in the House of Representatives. Soon after, Congress even managed to pass a law to protect same-sex marriages. But, ahead of the 2024 presidential elections, Biden and the Democrats have a lot of work to do to make sure Donald Trump and his politics do not come back into power. Abortion, critical race theory, and gun control remain important issues on the domestic agenda. Abroad, Biden’s administration will need to stand strong with its allies in the face of the Russian and Chinese threat.