And yet, within the state and outside, the move has prompted much conjecture, from this being a possible political realignment with elections scheduled in 2023, to its actual utility towards the ongoing negotiations between the government and Naga groups.

The political realignments

During the 2018 assembly elections, the NDPP and the BJP had a pre-poll arrangement where NDPP secured 17 seats and the BJP won 12 in a 60 member strong assembly. The two, along with the support of two National People’s Party (NPP) MLAs, one Janata Dal (United) and one independent, went on to form the People’s Democratic Alliance (PDA) government. The NPF, while being the single largest party with 26 elected members in the house of 60, was relegated to the opposition.

In 2021 itself, when the NPF announced it was joining the UDA alliance led by the NDPP, there were suggestions in the state that this was rooted in trouble between the NDPP and the BJP. Eventually, Rio’s party increased its tally in the assembly to 21 with the NPP and JD (U) MLAs merging with NDPP, and the party went on to win another seat in the by-election for a constituency where the sitting MLA from NPF passed away. With the recent merger of 21 NPF MLAs, NDPP’s total strength now stands at 42, 30 more than BJP.

The alleged strain, at least publicly, has been denied by the NDPP. “Our pre-poll alliance with the BJP continues and it will continue. What we had promised each other, we will not break that alliance and whatever is happening, is done with the knowledge of their (BJP) leadership,” NDPP spokesperson Merentoshi R Jamir said.

Senior BJP leaders that the HT has spoken to, however, are not quite so sure, and have said that decisions will be taken by the Delhi leadership. A state BJP official confirmed to HT that BJP Nagaland president Temjen Imna Along was summoned to Guwahati on Monday by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who was in Assam on a two-day visit. “What transpired there will likely decide the direction recent political developments have taken,” the official said.

Meanwhile, those that remain in an obviously rattled NPF have termed the exit of its 21 MLAs led by the legislature party leader and UDA chairman TR Zeliang a defection and not a “merger”. Zeliang however, has cited Clause 4(1) and (2) of the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution of India and counterclaimed that the merger was constitutionally valid.

Newly appointed NPF legislature party leader MLA Kuzholuzo Nienu expressed surprise as to what prompted his fellow NPF MLAs to join NDPP at a juncture when they had all already come together under an opposition-less UDA for an early solution to the vexed Naga political issue.

The pretext of the Naga peace process

The unresolved Naga political issue has come a long way with multiple agreements between the government of India and Nagas, the formation of Nagaland state, armed conflicts and ceasefire agreements. The latest is the Framework Agreement of 2015 between the Centre and the Isak-Muivah faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagalim (NSCN-IM) after 18 years of a truce; and an “agreed position” signed in 2017 between the Centre and the working committee of a conglomerate of seven different Naga national political groups (NNPGs).

However the NSCN (IM) has remained firm on its demand for a separate Naga flag and constitution, which has been a continued sticking point. Delhi’s emissary for the Naga peace talks AK Mishra held a series of meetings last month with the NSCN (IM) and other Naga political groups but thus far no notable outcome has emerged.

While the negotiations continue without visible breakthrough, the issue has become a widely used cause by politicians and political parties to further their objectives, especially during elections. Elected members have over the years pledged to facilitate the Naga peace process, including serving the stated reason for why the NPF joined the ruling coalition last year, or why the 21 NPF MLAs joined the NDPP.

Not everyone is convinced however. “The coming together of legislators does not mean anything for the Naga peace talks since they are not party to the negotiations. In fact there is no third party involvement at all in the negotiations and therefore all the 60 MLAs coming together is meaningless,” says Joel Naga, the president of Rising People’s Party (RPP), a freshly launched political party in Nagaland.

Naga said that elections in Nagaland cost large amounts of money and alleged that the 21 NPF MLAs may have felt that their only option was to defect to the ruling party regardless of the fact that the government in the state has no opposition. He also said that CM Rio is battling for his own survival against a belligerent BJP. “According to BJP ideologues, the time is ripe to breach the Christian bastion called Nagaland state and it’s felt that 2023 elections is the opportune moment for BJP. To pull off a BJP victory in Nagaland would be a huge propaganda victory for the Hindutva party creating ripples across India. Simply put, it’s a do or die moment for the CM Rio, and he’s doing everything in his power to cling to his chair,” Naga stated.

The concerns in civil society

“Nagaland assembly should be appreciated for facilitating the peace process in the last nearly two-decades – in the form of Joint Legislators’ Forum. But forming an opposition-less government taking the excuse of the peace process is groundless,” says H Chishi, a senior journalist who has been closely following and commenting on the state for over two decades.

Kohima-based political observer K Angami said that if the opposition-less government’s main motive was to boost the stalled Indo-Naga peace talks, that does not seem to be working except for routine meetings. “Moreover, in the last assembly session, in an opposition less space, the true essence of democracy was missing with hardly any worthy debate on the issues confronting the government vis-a-vis irregularities in government projects and departments. However, perhaps now the NPF is expected to train its guns on those in power in the next session, to avenge the defection of its members,” Angami said.

Dr. Dietho-o, a former politician and a keen political observer, said that the Naga public in general wants a solution so that they can march forward with peace and development, but with the talks stalling for so long now, hopes are fading before another election cycle. “Political leaders are looking for a party and leader/platform that is likely to return, in the event there is no solution when the time of election comes. Our disadvantage is the multiple leadership/negotiators in different Naga political groups. We are a small place and we cannot afford to have so many different political groups. Political will from Delhi is lacking and from the Nagas, unity is lacking,” he said candidly.

Rosemary Dzuvichu, women rights activist, said that much will depend on key leaders of the state and their sincerity in bringing the Naga conflict to a close. “I am stressing on sincerity because often times what politicians say in the public domain on the way forward, may be different behind closed doors in high corridors of power,” she said.