Subdued rain likely in northwest, central states during rest of August: IMD

Monsoon rain over northwest and central India is likely to remain largely subdued for the rest of August, although this period could see more rains than the first half of August, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD). There is a 6% deficiency in rainfall over the country since June 1, mainly due to little or no rains over the plains thus far in August. India ended July with a 5% surplus.

IMD’s extended range forecast released on Thursday said that while rainfall is expected to continue over the Himalayan foothills, east-central and northeast India, it is likely to be largely below normal over northwest, central and south Peninsular India. The Himalayan states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh have borne the brunt of rains in August. Thus far in the month, the two states have received 258 mm and 177.80 mm of rain respectively, 4% and 4% above normal.

Regionally, there is a 20% deficiency in rainfall over east and northeast India; 9% excess over northwest India; 4% deficiency over central India; and 13% deficiency over south peninsular India.

“The outlook is not so bright. August has gone very dry. This could be one of the worst August rainfall activity, mainly an impact of El Nino,” said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences (MoES).

Experts have said that ongoing El Nino conditions weakened the monsoon circulation over the Indian region in August. El Nino is characterized by an unusual warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which has a high correlation with warmer summers and weaker monsoon rains in India.

“The rainfall deficiency can increase further to 7- 8% by the end of August,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate and meteorology at Skymet Weather.

“We can say that rainfall activity will be slightly better than what we have seen in the first half of August,” said DS Pai, senior scientist, IMD. “We are seeing the impact of El Nino.”