Delimitation row: MK Stalin demands 30-year status quo on Lok Sabha seats

A meeting of political parties in Tamil Nadu on Wednesday unanimously asked the Centre to use the 1971 Census as the basis for any delimitation for the next 30 years, ratcheting up tensions on a contentious exercise that has the potential to widen the chasm between India’s northern and southern regions.

The meeting, presided over by Tamil Nadu chief minister MK Stalin but boycotted by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies, was attended by members of 35 parties, including the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Congress.

After the meeting, Stalin also proposed a joint action committee (JAC) comprising parliamentarians and representatives from all southern states to create awareness among people and prevent seat reductions during delimitation.

“To encourage family planning by all the states, the then PM in 2000 gave assurance that parliament constituency delimitation would be drafted based on the 1971 population census. Similarly, PM Modi should give assurance that the same draft would be followed from 2026 to the next 30 years,” said the resolution.

“This all-party meeting requests the Union government to make the required changes in the Constitution if at all present MP numbers are made to increase in Parliament, that should be done similar to the 1971 Census percentage to all southern states in both Houses,” the resolution added.

In addition to the leaders and ministers of the state’s ruling DMK, representatives of the AIADMK, Congress, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi, Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam, Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (Marxist), and Indian Union Muslim League were part of the discussions.

The BJP and its regional alliance partner, the Tamil Manila Congress, boycotted the meeting, along with the Tamil nationalist outfit Naam Tamilar Katchi.

BJP state president K Annamalai termed the meeting as the outcome of “prolonged hallucination” suffered by Stalin. “Misleading campaigns and false interpretations of Stalin will end by the 2026 assembly election. We will give him ample rest after the election,” he said.

At the heart of the spiralling controversy is the issue of delimitation – originally scheduled for 2026 – which redefines the number of representatives a state sends to the Lok Sabha on the basis of population. A 2019 analysis by Milan Vaishnaw and Jamie Hintson of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, projected that such an exercise could see the overall strength of the Lok Sabha rising to 668, with Uttar Pradesh alone seeing its tally increase from the current 80 to 143 by 2026. In contrast, Tamil Nadu, which currently sends 39 representatives, could see the number rise to just 49. Kerala, which sends 20, would see no change at all.

Last week, Union home minister Amit Shah sought to allay fears in Tamil Nadu, saying southern states will get a fair share of seats in the delimitation exercise. His comments came a day after Stalin called the impending delimitation “a sword hanging over the southern states”.

“The Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government has made it clear in the Parliament that on a pro rata basis, redrawing of parliamentary constituencies based on population levels will not alter the proportion of Lok Sabha members of Parliament from the southern states,” Shah said. He also assured that if there was any increase in seats during delimitation, the southern states would get an equal share.

To be sure, calculations show that if the number of Lok Sabha seats are increased proportional to the population of states, the more populous but poorer northern states will see their relative representation in Parliament expand at the expense of the prosperous but less populous southern states that have done far better in population control over the last few decades. Karnataka chief minister Siddaramaiah has also spoken out against the proposed exercise in recent weeks.

The Union government has not announced the timeline for delimitation or of the census which has to act as the basis for the exercise. And Shah’s comments appeared to suggest that the government could either defer the delimitation (like others before it have), or simply choose to not pursue any equity in representation across states. While such equity will ensure that every vote across India has the same weightage in terms of representation in the Lok Sabha, reducing the proportional representation of states such as Tamil Nadu will be tantamount to penalising them for successfully controlling the population (the national preoccupation in the 1970s especially) and rewarding the northern states for not doing so.

The concerns are not new. The 42nd Amendment to the Constitution in 1976 froze delimitation based on the 1971 Census, to promote family planning and population control. Then, in 2001, the 84th Amendment to the Constitution extended the freeze until 2026. When the delimitation happened in 2008, the total number of seats remained the same but the constituency boundaries were redrawn.

At the meeting, Stalin underlined the potential threat delimitation will cause to Tamil Nadu’s parliamentary representation, articulating that the state’s advances in population control and women empowerment could result in losing eight parliamentary seats if delimitation is based on present population figures.

The meeting underscored that Tamil Nadu is not against delimitation. “The delimitation sword is hanging over the head of south India and Tamil Nadu will be severely affected… delimitation based on population will be a threat to federalism and the rights of southern states to political representation,” Stalin said.

The JAC is to take forward such demands and create awareness among the people, the resolution said, adding that Tamil Nadu’s present representational percentage in Parliament, which is 7.18%, should not be changed under any circumstances.

“Reducing the number of Lok Sabha seats in the southern states is unjustifiable because they have effectively implemented population control measures. The Centre should retain the arrangement for the next 30 years, beginning from 2026, as Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee promised in 2000 that delimitation would be decided based on the 1971 census. It is necessary to make other states implement population control measures,” Stalin said.

“We must take a firm stand on the issue. We have to unequivocally oppose the delimitation based on the census in 2026,” Stalin said.

He said a population-based delimitation will reduce Tamil Nadu’s share by eight seats if the total numbers in the Lok Sabha are not changed. The state will gain an additional 22 constituencies if the Lok Sabha is increased to 848 seats, but the overall share of Tamil Nadu will dip, he added.

Former minister D Jayakumar, representing the AIADMK, extended his full support to the JAC and the resolution. “We must not create a situation in which the state’s long-term interests get sacrificed. We fully support the joint action involving southern states and the resolution against the delimitation exercise. We together have to demand that the existing 7.2% representation for Tamil Nadu in Parliament should not be reduced in the delimitation process.’’

Anbumani Ramadoss, leader of the opposition Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), voiced his support and urged Stalin to meet the chief ministers of southern states to coordinate against the proposed delimitation.