Rich countries off track on climate action, says report
Only Norway and Belarus among developed countries are on track to achieve their climate goals for this decade, according to a report by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water. The report found that developed countries are expected to collectively emit an additional 3.7 gigatonnes of CO2 in 2030, representing a 38% overshoot of their reduction targets. The US, EU, and Russia are responsible for 83% of this emissions gap. The report highlights the implications of this for developing countries, which need sufficient carbon space to address their development challenges.
New Delhi: Only two developed countries-- Norway and Belarus are on track to achieve their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for this decade, a new issue brief released by Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) said on Thursday.
Developed countries are projected to collectively emit around 3.7 giga tonnes extra carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2030, against the reduction goals expressed in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the 2015 Paris Agreement, CEEW said.
“This represents a 38% emission overshoot, with the United States, European Union, and Russia responsible for 83% of this,” the issue brief, published in collaboration with the TRANGOV project at Wageningen University & Research added. The report draws on developed countries’ self-disclosed information in official climate transparency reports. Based on this information, the study assesses past performance, as well as ambition of- and progress towards the implementation of key climate targets.
The brief highlighted that mitigation efforts of developed countries have direct implications for the limited carbon budget available to developing countries, which need sufficient carbon space to address development challenges. For this assessment, authors used datasets officially disclosed by developed countries in their reports as submitted under United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) transparency arrangements. They have considered developed countries as defined as Annex 1 parties under UNFCCC.
“Currently, developed countries’ NDCs for 2030 collectively represent a 36% reduction in emissions from their 2019 levels. This is less than the global average of 43% that is required to keep the 1.5°C target alive,” the report added.
Between 1990 and 2020, developed countries reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 20%, in line with an agreed-upon collective target. However, a substantial part of this reduction can be attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and the high emissions of former Soviet countries in the 1990 base year, the authors have said.
Developed countries are projected to collectively emit 3.7 GtCO2e more in 2030 compared to what is pledged in their NDCs. Moreover, to achieve net-zero emissions goal by 2050, developed countries bank on drastically reducing emissions after 2030. Even if net zero by 2050 is achieved, developed countries would still consume 40-50% of the remaining carbon budget, it added.
“The numbers are clear – even in this critical decade, developed countries are not projected to meet their 2030 NDC targets. This failure has implications for the limited global carbon budget available now, especially for developing countries like India. It is also crucial for the Global South to have produced this analysis and not just rely on handed-down assessments that focus disproportionately on emissions of emerging economies,” Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Fellow, CEEW in a statement.
“To fulfil their responsibility as historical emitters and financially capable economies, developed countries must do more than meet the global average in emission reduction,” Chaturvedi added.
“The climate journey of developed countries – historical and proposed – does not show deep enough emission reductions to reflect climate leadership. This means that the burden to mitigate global warming shifts to developing countries, which is problematic in a context where financial support to developing countries to achieve this transition has not been forthcoming, as promised,” added Sumit Prasad, Programme Lead, CEEW in the statement.
The issue brief recommends that developed countries enhance their NDCs and scale up climate action to bridge the projected 3.7 GtCO2e implementation gap by 2025.
What remains of the global carbon budget to keep global warming below 1.5°C is estimated to be about 500 GtCO2. This amount will be depleted by the end of the decade at the current rate of global emissions according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Around 40-50% of the remaining global carbon budget for the 1.5°C target would be consumed by developed countries even if they achieve net zero emissions by 2050, CEEW has projected.
