Red alert for parts of Gujarat as rains continued to batter flood-hit state

The India Metrological Department (IMD) has issued a red alert for places such as Bharuch and Valsad as rains continued to batter parts of Gujarat, where heavy rainfall and floods have left at least 40 people dead and over 55,000 displaced across 25 districts since August 25.

Bharuch’s Valia recorded the highest rainfall (156 mm) from 6 am to 6 pm on Tuesday, followed by Netrang 127 mm, Umarpada in Surat 105 mm, Valsad 104 mm, and Mehsana’s Jotana 95 mm.

A helicopter of the Indian Coast Guard, which has deployed four ships and two aircraft for rescue efforts, pressed into service to evacuate an injured crew member from a tanker off the Porbandar coast ditched into the sea after an emergency hard landing late on Monday. Bodies of two personnel on board the Dhruv advanced light were recovered. A flight diver was rescued earlier while the search for the helicopter pilot was on until late Tuesday evening.

The IMD said heavy to light rainfall was expected to continue in the state until the weekend even as over 15,000 villages continued to face power cuts. Cyclone Asna exacerbated the flood situation in Gujarat.

A study of the Machine Intelligence and Resilience Laboratory (MIR Lab) at the Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar (IITGN) found that 12 of Gujarat’s 33 districts experienced one-day rainfall totals exceeding the 10-year return period—a statistical measure used to gauge the frequency of such extreme events.

Districts such as Morbi and Dwarka received rainfall surpassing the 50-year return threshold, an intensity typically seen only once in half a century. Seventeen districts recorded two-day rainfall totals exceeding the 10-year return period. Jamnagar, Morbi, and Devbhumi Dwarka experienced rainfall levels above the 50-year return thresholds. Over three days, 15 districts reported rainfall surpassing the 10-year return period. Districts, including Jamnagar and Dwarka, exceeded their expected return levels.

The pattern of concurrent extreme events impacting multiple regions simultaneously is a major challenge for emergency response efforts. Rescue, relief, and evacuation operations become increasingly difficult with resources stretched thin, highlighting the need for scalable emergency response strategies to manage the complexities of widespread weather events.

MIR Lab principal investigator Udit Bhatia called for understanding the nuances of urban flooding. “The granularity of the available data may not fully capture the specifics of urban flooding, which often results from short duration, high-intensity rainfall that overwhelm city drainage systems.”

Bhatia added prolonged rainfall can saturate the soil during initial spells, leading to increased surface run off in subsequent downpours. He said this run off exacerbates flooding, especially in urban areas where drainage systems are either inadequate or compromised.

The IITGN study called Vadodara pertinent example of this phenomenon as it experienced severe flooding despite the three-day rainfall corresponding to a return period of less than 10 years. It said this suggests that while the rainfall was not unprecedented, the flooding was likely aggravated by factors such as extensive urban development in flood prone areas, altered land elevations, and clogged drainage systems resulting from rapid urbanisation.

“The recurrence of such unusual weather events along India’s western coast underscores the urgent need to rethink urban planning and infrastructure resilience. As rapid urbanization continues to alter regional and local hydrology, placing increased strain on drainage systems, it is crucial to incorporate hydrological considerations into urban development strategies,” the study said. “Addressing these challenges is vital to reducing the risks associated with increasingly frequent and severe weather events, ensuring that cities are better prepared to withstand the impacts of future storms.”