Praggnanandhaa and the Indian droves in junior chess

R Praggnanandhaa’s stunning win against world champion Magnus Carlsen in an elite rapid chess tournament earlier this week earned the 16-year-old praise from five-time world champion Viswanathan Anand, cricketing great Sachin Tendulkar and a place in Amul ads (“Magnusficent Taste”). It has also catapulted him further into the spotlight, to be keenly watched for his progress up the ranks. After Anand, who came of age in the mid-1980s, young kids from India have been taking to the game in large numbers. In the junior ranks, both boys and girls, India leads all countries on several metrics. Transporting that dominance, however, to senior ranks in similar numbers has been a different game altogether.

Starting Young

According to the World Chess Federation, the governing body of the game, there are 100,648 players who were born after 2001 and who have an ELO rating. ELO is the most popular method to rate chess players, and is used by national chess federations, chess websites, and FIDE itself. Having an ELO rating doesn’t say anything about a player’s skill levels — anyone can get a rating — but it’s an indicator the player is serious about the game.

Of these 100,648 players below 21 years who are active and have an ELO rating, as many as 12,954 are from India— or 12.9%. India is second only to Russia, which has about 15,000 such players. There’s a massive drop to third place, France, with about 5500 players. This indicates how young Indians are taking to chess.

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Levels of Persistence

For chess players, the next step is to get a ranking. The rankings include the progressive titular milestones: from high to low, Grandmaster (GM), International Master (IM), FIDE Master (FM) and Candidate Master for male players; similarly, for female players, WGM, WIM, WFM and WCM. To acquire these titles, a player must have an ELO rating of over 2,000. There are 2,127 players below the age of 21 and with a ranking. India’s share among them is about 7%.

That’s a drop of nearly 6 percentage points from its active under-21 share. India’s share in titles relative to ratings suggests a relatively smaller number pursue it with the kind of work needed to become a master. At the same time, India has made big gains. Among under-21 players with a title, India’s share has increased from 4.9% in February 2015.

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Junior Leaders

The picture changes, once again, at the highest level of the pyramid: Grandmaster. In general, a player needs an ELO rating of 2,500 or more to become a GM. Among active GMs under the age of 21, India’s share is a massive 23%. In other words, even as half the young Indian brigade is dropping off, a few among them are making it to GM levels.

India has added 18 GMs since 2019. The average age of players who joined the club in 2021 was 18 years, compared to 20 years in 2020. Praggnanandhaa himself became a GM when he was just 12 years, 10 months and 13 days old, becoming the world’s second-youngest and India’s youngest GM in 2018. A year later, that record went to D Gukesh.

India dominates junior chess rankings, especially on the male side. Among the top 100 junior male players, 21 are from India—the most from any country. Among junior females, India is second with 9 players in the top 100. Vantika Agarwal, who won the women’s national online chess title last year, leads with a rating of 2,381.

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Transition Pangs

Taking those counts to the senior ranks has not been easy. Of the 58 people who have won the junior world championship since 1951, only four winners — Boris Spassky, Anatoly Karpov, Garry Kasparov and Viswanathan Anand — have gone on to win the World Chess Championship. Anand also stands out for his longevity: He’s the only current top-20 player born in the 1960s.

Transitions in chess are not easy. For example, in 2015, India had nine players among the top 100 juniors. Of these, only two have remained in the club as they transitioned to open category. Vidit Gujrathi, who was number 12 among the younger players, is ranked 21 in the open category. SL Narayanan, who was 76th in 2015 among juniors, is at 83. Others have drifted off.

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