Polls at north and south around the world: Looking forward into 2024
There are elections scheduled in nearly 40 countries, which together account for 41% of the world’s population and 42% of its GDP.
Will Donald Trump return to the Oval Office? Will the Labour Party finally end the Conservative’s 13-year streak in the UK? Will the new government in Taiwan lean towards or away from Beijing?
These are the questions that will be answered this year, with a number of countries scheduled to hold elections. In fact, there is the possibility of a change in leadership in nearly 40 countries, which together account for 41% of the world’s population and 42% of its GDP. So, 2024 could reshape global politics and the democratic order.
The most consequential election will be the November one in the United States, where former President Donald Trump is eyeing a return to the White House. With Trump’s various legal challenges, including his trial in the 2021 Capitol riot, yet to begin, it is difficult to tell if he will indeed be on the ballot at all. As things stand, he is polling high enough to set the stage for a rematch with Joe Biden. In that scenario, Trump has a slight lead over Biden nationally.
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But world leaders and policy analysts are wary of a US President with an “America first” agenda in the White House again. Abroad, it could endanger US support for Ukraine, participation in NATO, ties with China, efforts towards fighting the climate crisis, and involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict, including as a key mediator.
At home, apart from the impact on abortion and minority rights, immigration issues and gun control, talks on the US debt ceiling, which affect markets around the world, could be stymied.
Across the Atlantic, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak — who marked that country’s third leadership switch (after Liz Truss and Boris Johnson) in three years — and his Conservative Party are lagging behind the Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, in opinion polls.
Sunak’s stint has been exacerbated by ideological schisms in the party, between its right-wing faction and its centrists, particularly over immigration and policing. How the 2024 election in Britain turns out has ramifications for Indian emigration, Scottish independence, and the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
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Closer to home Both Bangladesh and Pakistan will hold elections in the first half of 2024. Political tensions and public dissent are rising ahead of Bangladesh’s polls in January, with the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina accused of human rights violations, curbs on press freedoms, and suppression of dissent since she came to power in 2009.
In Pakistan, elections have been postponed to February amid political and economic upheaval that has included the ouster and imprisonment of former prime minister Imran Khan, the return of former premier Nawaz Sharif, and persistently high inflation. Outcomes of the two elections hold implications not only for cross-border ties but also for India’s national security.
In the wider region, the election in Taiwan has the power to upend China-US relations as Beijing strengthens its claim over the self-ruled island. While the US has time and again reiterated its support for the “one-China” policy, it also maintains close ties with the island and has provided it with defence equipment, angering Beijing.
Elections have been known to escalate tensions in the past. In 1996, for instance, the US sent an aircraft carrier into the region in response to China’s military exercises and missile tests ahead of voting.
Martial law President Volodymyr Zelensky has ruled out elections in Ukraine, saying it is “not the time”. The country has been under martial law since Russia invaded in February 2022.
Across the border, Russia is scheduled to hold elections as usual, with President Vladimir Putin — already the longest-serving Russian leader since Joseph Stalin — expected to stay in power. Prominent critics and Opposition leaders have either fled abroad or been jailed. Putin’s re-election is expected to tighten his grip on the country and boost his resolve to annex Ukraine.
Amid the rising popularity of right-wing parties in Europe, elections to the European Parliament — which decide the commission president and the president of the European Council — could bring consequential shifts in the political arena, impacting action and legislation in core areas such as climate action, immigration, and the response to the war in Ukraine.
In South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC), which has been in power since the end of apartheid, and President Cyril Ramaphosa, have come under fire for corruption and crony capitalism as the country struggles to emerge from the effects of the war in Ukraine and the pandemic. Analysts say this might result in an Opposition party coming to power for the first time since 1994.
“Elections are opportunities for political turnover,” says Seema Shah, head of the democracy assessment team at the Stockholm-based think tank International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA). “All the 2024 general elections carry a great deal of weight, especially for the people who are voting. At the global level, many eyes will be on India, the US, South Africa, Mexico and the European Parliament.”
