On Friday afternoon, two days before campaigning for the first phase of the crucial assembly elections were to end, BJP leaders across the central plains of Chhattisgarh watched their television screens earnestly. The nervousness built as Union home minister Amit Shah settled into his chair in front of waiting cameras at the BJP headquarters in Raipur, and began to speak, announcing the salient points of the BJP’s manifesto. And they heard what they were waiting for: a guarantee to Chhattisgarh’s farmers that a future BJP-led government would acquire paddy at ₹3,100 per quintal per acre. One senior BJP leader based in Raipur said, “The paddy announcement was the most important. Now, we have a chance at winning this election.”

On Friday afternoon, two days before campaigning for the first phase of the crucial assembly elections were to end, BJP leaders across the central plains of Chhattisgarh watched their television screens earnestly. The nervousness built as Union home minister Amit Shah settled into his chair in front of waiting cameras at the BJP headquarters in Raipur, and began to speak, announcing the salient points of the BJP’s manifesto. And they heard what they were waiting for: a guarantee to Chhattisgarh’s farmers that a future BJP-led government would acquire paddy at ₹3,100 per quintal per acre. One senior BJP leader based in Raipur said, “The paddy announcement was the most important. Now, we have a chance at winning this election.”

In many ways, conversations around paddy have framed political fortunes in Chhattisgarh since it became a state in 2000. When Raman Singh came to power in 2003, he built an identity as “chawal vale baba”, the man who strengthened the state’s public distribution system. In 2013, looking for a third term in power, the BJP promised ₹2,100 per quintal, inclusive of MSP and a paddy bonus. The BJP won Chhattisgarh, but a year later, when they ascended the seat of power in Delhi as well, the Union government tightened their fists, actively discouraging the disbursal of a bonus. The Union government said that if a state undertaking decentralised procurement was to declare a bonus over and above the support price, the Centre would limit procurement from the central pool.

For two years between 2014 and 2016, the BJP in Chhattisgarh had to stop the paddy bonus. Under fire from farmer groups, the Raman Singh-led government did announce a bonus of ₹300 per quintal for the years 2016/17 and 2017/18, but the reluctance had become clear, and juxtaposed with a Congress campaign that centred itself around a ₹2,500 rupee per quintal promise. The BJP was reduced to its lowest tally ever, winning just 15 of the 90 seats on offer in 2018.

A senior Chhattisgarh-based BJP leader said that even five years ago, the state unit had beseeched the Centre to match the Congress promise. “In 2018, the sense was that we were not committed to farmers, nor had we delivered to farmers in the state. Maybe some thought that our welfare schemes were enough. Clearly, that assessment was incorrect,” the leader said. An HT data analysis published on November 6 shows that paddy accounts for more than a third of the state’s total crop output in 10 years ending 2020-2021, according to data from the National Statistical Office. The only other states where the crop output is so concentrated are Punjab and Odisha. Further, 49% of agricultural households in Chhattisgarh sold paddy to an MSP procurement agency during July-December 2018, the period of the Situation Assessment Survey relevant to paddy procurement. This is the highest participation by agricultural households of any state in paddy MSP operations in the country, far ahead of second-placed Telangana, where this share was 17%.

Friday’s announcement by the BJP then, was a remarkable climbdown from their 2014 position; in addition to a price of ₹3,100 per quintal per acre, the party promised procurement of up to 21 quintals per acre. The Congress responded quickly, and on Saturday announced that it would offer ₹3,200 per quintal, with procurement up to 20 quintals per acre (up from the current 15). Over the past five years, the state government has procured paddy at around ₹2,600 per quintal, inclusive of the MSP and a ₹600 paddy bonus.

The BJP leader quoted above said, “The difference between paddy procurement rates is only ₹100, so the voter will now take a considered call. With one difference removed, the focus can also now shift to other issues we are raising, like the lack of development or corruption charges against the government.”

BJP leaders that HT spoke to in the run-up to the announcement said they believed that the BJP has made gains in a state where every election, barring 2018, has been tightly fought. Between 2003 and 2018, for instance, even though the BJP won 50, 50, and 49 seats, respectively, in a 90 member assembly, the voteshare difference between the BJP and the Congress ranged from 0.7% to 2.5 %. “Our calculations are that we were already gaining in tribal and urban areas. The problem was the rural plains in the centre of the state where farmer issues are very strong. If the announcement had not come, then we would have reduced margins, but were unlikely to cross the 45 (seat) mark. Now it is a very interesting battle, and our cadre will take the promise down to the people,” a second BJP leader said.

The question before the BJP, however, is the question of credibility. Anand Mishra, vice president of the Sanyukt Kisan Morcha, Chhattisgarh, a farmer group, said, “Some people may still not trust the BJP. They made promises 10 years ago but did not follow through. The Congress, on the other hand, gave both the MSP and the bonus. I can’t say much about the urban areas, but in the rural plains, I think the Congress still has an edge.”

Cognizant of this, the BJP has attached the guarantees to their most credible face, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and have called the promises “Modi ki guarantee 2023.” “This is by design. We have not declared a chief ministerial face, and nobody from the state leadership has the heft to carry a sense of credibility. So it had to be called Modi ki guarantee, and had to be announced by Amit Shah. They are still very popular in the state. Otherwise, the BJP would not have won nine of 11 Lok Sabha seats six months after losing the assembly elections,” a third BJP leader said.

The Congress responded by attacking the BJP for calling such schemes “revadis” (freebies) in the past. On the day Shah announced the manifesto, Vinod Verma, political advisor to chief minister Baghel said, “Amit Shah comes to Chhattisgarh and announces a manifesto and says they will give those things to people that Prime Minister Modi once called ‘revadis’. They can announce a manifesto but the BJP’s history shows they do not do what they say. If you don’t believe me, ask the farmers who did not get either their promised ₹2,100 per quintal nor a paddy bonus (promised in 2013).”

Political experts in Chhattisgarh said the BJP’s gambit could well affect the elections. Harsh Dubey, a political commentator, said, “There are 64 seats in the plains in Chhattisgarh, apart from the 12 in Bastar and the 14 in Surguja. There are 70 seats where paddy farmers play a role in differing degrees and how they vote may well be the single largest factor in the election. The state BJP has been inactive on the ground for four years, and if they had made the announcement earlier, the situation could have been completely different. Still, it does seem like the BJP may still be in the running, and what seemed like a cakewalk (for the Congress), could well be tighter if they (the BJP) get their campaigning right.”