Oppn claws out gains; NDA sweeps Northeast

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) reaffirmed its dominance in Assam, and, along with its allies, the North-East; the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal; and the Congress delivered a major upset in Himachal Pradesh, another upset in Karnataka, and held its own in Rajasthan when results were declared on Tuesday to by-elections in 29 assembly and three Lok Sabha constituencies across 14 states and a Union territory. In one seat, in Nagaland, the winner was declared uncontested on October 13.

The results of the bypolls can’t be extrapolated to analyse possible outcomes of full-scale state and national elections, but they are, analysts say, usually a weathervane of sentiment.

If that’s the case, the BJP has reason for cheer (Assam, Madhya Pradesh, North-East, and Telangana, where it won a hotly contested seat), and concern (Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Bengal).

And while the Congress can feel encouraged by its performance in Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Karnataka (where it gave a black eye to the current chief minister BS Bommai by winning a seat in his home district), its performance in Assam was disappointing.

 

There were sub plots as well – in Bihar, for instance, where the Janata Dal (United) put up a strong showing and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), despite all its talk, didn’t; in Dadra and Nagar Haveli, where the Shiv Sena won its first Lok Sabha seat outside Maharashtra; and in Haryana, where Indian National Lok Dal’s (INLD) Abhay Chautala won back the seat he vacated to protest three controversial central farm laws.

This is the last round of elections before high-stakes polls in five states, including Uttar Pradesh, scheduled early next year. In all, the BJP and its allies won 16 assembly seats and one Lok Sabha seat, the Congress won eight assembly seats and one Lok Sabha seat, and other Opposition parties won six assembly and one Lok Sabha seat.

HIMACHAL PRADESH

In Himachal Pradesh, the opposition Congress swept the by-elections. It wrested the Mandi Lok Sabha constituency and Jubbal-Kotkhai assembly segment from the ruling BJP and retained the Arki and Fatehpur assembly seats. The state is scheduled to go the polls in November-December next year.

The biggest upset was delivered in Mandi, where Pratibha Singh, the wife of former chief minister Virbhadra Singh, won by 7,490votes. In 2019, the BJP’s Ram Swaroop Sharmawon the seat by 450,000 votes.

The victory was a setback for chief minister Jai Ram Thakur, for whom the election was a litmus test as the state heads into an election year. Mandi is considered Thakur’s home turf.

ASSAM AND NORTH-EAST

The BJP and its allies delivered their best performance in the North-East, where they swept all 10 assembly seats in four states. In Assam, where by-elections were held in five seats, the ruling BJP won three and its partner United Peoples’ Party Liberal (UPPL) bagged the other two.

“Today’s victory is both humbling and reassuring and we promise to continue the path of ‘vikas’ (progress) as per vision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi… This further strengthens our resolve to continue delivering on good governance,” chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma said.

Two of the five seats, Tamulpur and Gossaigaon, fell vacant due to deaths of opposition Bodoland Peoples’ Front (BPF) and ruling UPPL legislators from Covid 19–related complications.

The other three seats went to polls as two Congress MLAs, from Mariani and Thawra, and an All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) MLA from Bhabanipur switched to the BJP. All three turncoats, Sushanta Borgohain (Thawra), Rupjyoti Kurmi (Mariani) and Phanidhar Talukdar (Bhabanipur), secured easy wins on Tuesday.

“We accept the people’s verdict with humility,” Assam Congress president Bhupen Kumar Borah said.

In Meghalaya, ruling National Peoples’ Party (NPP) candidates won two of the three seats while ally, United Democratic Party (UDP), emerged the winner in the third. In Mizoram, ruling Mizo National Front (MNF) candidate K Laldawngliana won the lone bypoll and in Nagaland, the ruling Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) retained the Shamator-Chessore assembly constituency with its candidate S Keoshu Yimchunger declared elected uncontested.

BENGAL

The biggest margins of the day came from West Bengal, where the TMC won all seats that voted on Saturday, wresting two seats from opposition BJP.

The BJP, which won the Dinhata seat by 57 votes and Santipur by 15,878 votes in the March-April elections, lost the seats by 160,000 votes and 64,675 votes respectively. Polls in these constituencies had to be held because the winners did not take oath as legislators to retain their Lok Sabha seats. The Dinhata seat, which was earlier won by Union minister of state for home Nisith Pramanik, delivered the biggest assembly poll margin in the state’s history.

In Khardaha and Gosaba, where polls had to be held as the TMC’s winning candidates died, the state’s ruling party won by 93,832 and 140,000 votes, respectively.

KARNATAKA

In Karnataka, chief minister Bommai suffered a setback as the Congress stole a victory in his home district in Hangal constituency. Srinivas Mane, the Congress candidate, won by 7373 votes.

The BJP secured a resounding victory in Sindgi, defeating the Congress by over 30,000 votes. The seat was earlier held by the Janata Dal (Secular), which ran a coalition government with the Congress between 2018 and 2019.

“Losing Hangal is a big statement for the BJP. There was more focus on Hangal from the government and all controversial statements came from this constituency,” A Narayana, political analyst and faculty at the Azim Premji University, said.

TELANGANA

In Telangana, the BJP snatched the Huzurabad assembly seat from the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS). Former state health minister Eatala Rajender, who contested the by-elections on a BJP ticket, defeated TRS candidate Gellu Srinivas Yadav by 23,865 votes in a keenly fought battle.

The by-election was necessitated due to the resignation of Rajender, who quit the TRS and joined the BJP in June this year. The by-election in Huzurabad was seen as a battle of egos between the CM and Rajender.

“Had Rajender lost the by-election, it would have been a big question mark on his political career. By winning the seat, he not only proved his hold over the constituency but also improved the prospects of the BJP all over Telangana,” political analyst S Ramakrishna said.

BIHAR

In Bihar, the JD(U) retained both Kusheshwar Sthan and Tarapur assembly seats despite a high-voltage offensive by the RJD with the return of party chief Lalu Prasad on the campaign trail.

JD(U) nominee Aman Bhushan Hazari defeated RJD’s Ganesh Bharti by 12,695 votes in Kusheshwar Sthan. At Tarapur, JD(U) candidate Rajeev Kumar Singh won by 3,821 votes. The election also saw growing bitterness between the RJD and the Congress, which contested the elections separately but couldn’t make an impact.

OTHER RESULTS

The BJP gained in Madhya Pradesh by winning two seats- Jobat and Prithvipur -- both Congress bastions and retained the Lok Sabha seat of Khandwa in bypolls. The Congress won one seat, Raigaon, after a period of 32 years.

In Rajasthan, the opposition BJP lost both assembly seats - Vallabhnagar and Dhariawad -- to Congress, and stood fourth and third, respectively.

INLD’s Abhay Singh Chautala retained the Ellenabad seat by defeating his BJP rival, Gobind Kanda, by 6,739 votes. This is his fifth assembly victory from the rural Jat-dominated seat.

For the first time since its inception in the 1960s, the Shiv Sena will have an MP from outside Maharashtra with the party nominee Kalaben Delkar, wife of independent MP late Mohan Delkar, winning the bypoll to the Dadra and Nagar Haveli Lok Sabha seat on Tuesday. She defeated her BJP rival Mahesh Gavit by 51,269 votes.

The ruling YSR Congress retained the Badvel assembly seat in Kadapa district of Andhra Pradesh, securing a record margin of 90,533 votes.