Last week, Nitish even changed the portfolios of three of his cabinet colleagues — all from the RJD — including Chandrashekhar, who held the education portfolio, and whose comments on the Ram temple sparked a controversy some time ago.

On Friday, the CM sat through the Republic Day function with leader of Opposition Vijay Kumar Sinha, while Tejashwi Prasad Yadav remained conspicuous by his absence. The JD(U) is believed to have called its lawmakers to Patna even as Ram Manjhi, whose Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) is an NDA constituent, reiterated a “big political game” was in the offing.

The RJD is not ready to make it easy for Nitish Kumar to switch this time around. “There are times when the smart get outsmarted. We are ready for any situation should the situation arise. JD-U will also face the consequences of its constant flip-flop, as there are many leaders even there [in the Bharatiya Janata Party] who don’t approve of it. They are ready to cross over should the situation demand and we will not let the GA government fall,” said a senior RJD leader at the helm.

RJD MP Manoj Jha still exuded optimism about the situation. “The chemistry and work ethics between the CM and the deputy CM is commendable... The BJP can feel an approaching disaster. This is why even after making a grand spectacle of the Pran Pratishtha ceremony, they know that the 'Bahujan' community of Bihar still does not trust the BJP. This is why an emergency meeting was called... All is well between RJD and JDU.”

Yet, later in the day on Friday, in a curt response to media queries, Jha said the Bihar chief minister must "clear the confusion" by evening.

Despite all the manoeuvres and posturing, JD-U is treading cautiously. It is dropping hints that the ties with the RJD may be over unless there is a change of heart in its chief, Nitish Kumar. “Everything depends on the circumstances. Let’s watch how things evolve. At present, the GA government is in place in Bihar,” said a senior JD-U leader, who did not wish to be named. All the JD-U leaders this reporter spoke to refused to come on quote, saying the situation was fluid and they wanted to avoid making a premature comment.

Flip-flop, one too many times

If the speculations do turn out to be true, and Nitish severs ties with the RJD, this would be its fourth time doing so in just a decade. Yet, despite changing alliance partners, Nitish has managed to protect his own position as CM each time. He aims to remain indispensable in Bihar’s triangular politics (RJD, BJP, JD-U). He has been sworn in as CM eight times since 2005.

The first time he severed political ties, it was with the BJP in 2013 to join hands with the RJD. This was when Narendra Modi, then Gujarat chief minister was announced as BJP’s prime ministerial candidate for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Nitish batted for a “secular face”, sought a “Sangh-mukt Bharat”, and questioned the Gujarat model.

However, he was reduced to two seats when he fought alone in Bihar. He ended up resigning and installed Jitan Ram Manjhi as the Bihar CM. Later, ahead of the 2015 Assembly elections, he joined hands with the RJD and the Nitish-Lalu combine managed to halt the BJP surge at the peak of the Modi wave in 2015. The GA got 178 seats in the 243-member assembly.

However, the bonhomie did not continue for long. In July 2017 he severed ties with the RJD over corruption charges against his deputy, Tejashwi Prasad Yadav — Lalu’s son. He formed the next government with the BJP and in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA won an unprecedented 39 of the 40 Parliamentary seats. JD-U won 16 of the 17 seats it contested.

But the Assembly election a year later in 2020 sowed the seeds of bitterness between JD-U and BJP. Despite being in alliance, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) fought independently and fielded its candidates on all the seats JD-U contested in. Though the LJP did not fare well, it recorded a pyrrhic victory by reducing the JD-U to the third position in terms of seats for the first time. The JD-U won 43 seats, too low, but just enough to remain a factor for any government to form in Bihar.

After this, JD-U’s ties with the BJP hit rock bottom despite the BJP making Nitish Kumar CM though it won 77 seats. By August 2022, Nitish was faced with an assertive BJP in Bihar, forcing him to walk out of the NDA to form the government with the RJD and the Congress. He differed with the Centre over the Uniform Civil Code, population control, caste census and continued refusal of his demands for special status to Bihar and central university status to Patna University.

After joining the GA, Nitish made big plans with the RJD — he moved across the country to initiate opposition unity and invited all the top leaders of the non-BJP parties to Patna for a big meeting. The agenda was clear — to uproot the Narendra Modi-led NDA government at the Centre. And though the INDIA opposition bloc eventually came together, Nitish refused to be its convenor.

Read more: Why Nitish’s refusal to take up the INDIA convenor post was expected

“The opposition alliance should have handled a senior and politically smart leader like Nitish Kumar better, especially after constant signals from the Bihar CM that he was not happy with the goings on and delays in resolving core issues for a united fight. Having been virtually sidelined, it is quite expected for Nitish to weigh his options, as he always does. Nitish Kumar has sharp political acumen and he knows how to create a situation that is suited to his politics. Underestimating him has proved costly for both the BJP and the RJD. But in politics, one does not get what one wants each time. The BJP and the RJD must also have their strategies worked out,” analyst Prof Nawal Kishor Choudhary said.

“Nitish Kumar has been known for changing his alliance partners as required. If it happens again, it will be no surprise. Having not found adequate say in the united Opposition alliance, which he initiated, he has again found a reason to switch over. How far he will succeed, only time will tell. RJD may also have prepared itself for this situation,” said political analyst DM Diwakar.