Low positivity rate during Mahakumbh casts doubt on data accuracy

A probe launched into private labs carrying out fake Covid-19 tests to meet targets during the Mahakumbh in Haridwar will also look into apparent data inconsistencies – the 10-week average test positivity rate beginning April in Haridwar was 4%, while the figure for the rest of Uttarakhand was 13.7% – with officials saying on Sunday that “a comprehensive investigation has been ordered”.

The Haridwar district administration has ordered a probe into allegations that fake Covid-19 reports were issued by private labs engaged by the Uttarakhand government to conduct tests during the festival, which was attended by millions between April 1 and April 30.

During the Mahakumbh festival period, overall active cases in the state jumped from 100,911 to 179,933. During the period, Haridwar reported an average positivity rate of 2.9%, while the corresponding number for the rest of the state (excluding Haridwar) 14.2%. The test positivity rate is the percentage of people who test positive for the disease among of all samples tested.

Dr SK Gupta, director of the State Medical and Health Department, said all aspects will be investigated. “We are also surprised at the low test positivity rate in Haridwar and, therefore, a comprehensive investigation has been ordered.”

When asked about the wide gap between the data for Hardiwar and the entire state, Subodh Uniyal, cabinet minister and spokesperson of the state government, said the government had nothing to hide. “On the contrary, we have initiated a probe into this to know the extent to which fake testing was done. The probe will make clear how much testing was fake and how much financial bungling private labs have committed. All things will be clear after the probe report is submitted. And we are committed to having transparency in all this.”

Experts said the lopsided nature of data was a matter of concern, indicating irregularities in the tests conducted in the district.

Dr DD Choudhary, the Indian Medical Association’s (IMA) state secretary, said it was surprising that the area that hosted the planet’s largest religious gathering reported a positivity rate that was lower than other parts of the state.

Anoop Nautiyal, founder of Social Development for Communities Foundation (SDC), said: “We knew something was not right when it came to data that was coming from Haridwar compared to other districts. Now when allegations of fake tests have come to fore, the state government should not hesitate in accepting errors and after thorough probe, take action against the erring labs and make changes in the state-wide data to nullify the anomalous data.”