Lionel Messi: A talisman evolving with age

Lionel Messi against Mexico. Receiving a pass on the edge of the penalty box, and then quickly firing a grounder into one corner of the net. Messi against Croatia. Running circles around 20-year-old Josko Gvardiol before directing a pinpoint pass into the path of Julian Alvarez for another Argentinian statement. Two situations, two approaches. One player, one outcome. That’s Messi at World Cup 2022.

That expansion of skill and widening of his role in the team is a testament to the evolution of the abilities of a 35-year-old Messi. This is a player who began his career in 2005 as a pure striker in the Tiki-Taka philosophy of Barcelona. This is a player who, in laboured pursuit of the holy grail of football, has evolved to find a greater purpose and meaning in the touches before the last touch. Like an older Michael Jordan transitioning from dunking the ball to shooting fadeaway jumpers, Messi is doing a whole lot more with the ball — and leaving an indelible impact on the game.

Goals, and assists

Goals and assists (normalised for playing time) are useful metrics to measure the effectiveness of a player in offence. Any discussion of statistics for modern footballers will be weighed towards their club performance. In his 19-year-long career, Messi has played a total of 873 matches, of which 767 have been for clubs (Barcelona and Paris-Saint Germain), and 106 for Argentina.

Messi is not as prolific a goal-scorer he was in his heyday at Barcelona. In eight of the 10 seasons from 2019-10 and 2018-19, he averaged more than one goal per 90 minutes of playing time. In each of the last four seasons, his average for goals per 90 minutes has been below 1. At the same time, his assist numbers have shot up recently. In three of the last four seasons, he has averaged more than 0.5 assists per 90 minutes. For context, over the 19 years that he’s played professional football, Messi has managed this feat only two other times – in the 2007-08, and the 2010-11 season.

[Chart 1]

Still creating shots

Shot-creating actions (SCA) measure the dribbles, invited fouls or passes that eventually lead to a shot on goal. It measures a player’s contributions to goal-scoring opportunities for the team. For most of his career, Messi has been hyphenated by some fans with Cristiano Ronaldo, even though the latter is two years older and they play different positions and styles. The drop in Ronaldo’s numbers due to his latest stint with Manchester United, however, has been evident – from an average of above four SCAs per 90 minutes to just 1.89.

Messi, by comparison, has consistently averaged significantly higher SCAs. His numbers have dropped since moving to Paris Saint-Germain, partly because there are more takers at PSG for corners and free kicks than in Barcelona. At Barcelona, Messi averaged about three free kicks and four corners per match. At PSG, he’s averaging one free kick per match.

For Ronaldo, the fall in SCA comes from dribbles, where he no longer has the burst of pace he once did. His successful dribble-completion rate has dropped from 74% in 2017-18 to 44% in his last year at United.

[Chart 2]

More work for a goal

Another metric to compare players is the number of shots on target that convert to a goal, with a high number indicating a lower conversion rate of shot on target to goal.

For Messi, as with Ronaldo to bring him into the conversation as a comparative tool, the average number of shots on target required for a goal has increased in the last few years as he moved to a different club. While Ronaldo’s first year back at United was efficient, with him scoring 24 goals in all competitions, his last year required him to get off close to six shots on target to get a goal. He ended the first half of the year with just three goals to his name in all competitions. Messi, who averaged under three shots to a goal in the decade between 2011-12, scored once for nearly five shots in 2021-22, and 4.2 shots in 2022-23.

Chart 3]

Impact on team

Though Portugal bowed out of the World Cup in the quarter-finals against Morocco, it’s again instructive to look at Ronaldo to understand Messi’s impact in his twilight years. In 2021, both Messi and Ronaldo were at similar crossroads, looking for a new club. Both struggled to transition into a new club, squad and league. To calculate their impact on the end result of the team, we looked at the net score while they were on the pitch versus when they were not. In 2021-22, Ronaldo was on the pitch for 72% of the time that his team, largely Manchester United, was playing. The same year, Messi was part of 63% of his team’s playing time.

We examined the net score of the team when the player was on the pitch minus the net score when the player was off the pitch. A negative score here indicates the team performed well while the player was off the pitch — and is, thus, a negative for the player. While in 2021-22, both their performances on the pitch did not have a significant impact for the team. This is evident in the negative net scores. This year, though, Messi has again had a positive impact as he moves to completing two years at PSG. Ronaldo, meanwhile, has failed to make a significant impact.

On Sunday, when Messi faces a great rival from a different generation in France’s Kylian Mbappe, Argentina will hope for plenty more of that.

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