Kerala votes: Will a rising BJP help LDF’s cause or is UDF returning comfortably?

In Kerala, where there is a direct contest between the Congress-led United Democratic Front and the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front in most of the 20 Lok Sabha constituencies, votes of the relatively weaker Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may decide whether the UDF repeats its 2019 performance (it won 19 seats).

Kerala, along with 12 other states, will go to polls on April 26 in the second phase of the 2024 general elections, and most opinion polls have given the UDF an edge over the others, with some even claiming that the LDF could make a comeback with a better tally.

The 2019 Lok Sabha elections, fought in the shadow of the agitation over the entry of women in the Sabarimala temple and the candidacy of the then Congress president Rahul Gandhi in Wayanad, saw a landslide result in the favour of the UDF, with the alliance notching over 47% votes, an increase of five percentage points, and winning 19 of the 20 seats. These factors are said to have led to massive erosion of both Hindu as well as minority votes from the LDF to the UDF and the BJP. The LDF vote share fell to 36% from 40% in 2014 and that of the NDA rose to 16% in 2019 from 11 % in 2014.

In 2019, the BJP made significant inroads in several constituencies such as Attingal, Pathanamthitta, Palakkad and Alappuzha. In Palakkad, Thrissur, Chalakudy, Kottayam, Alappuzha, Mavelikkara, Pathanamthitta and Attingal, its vote share increased between five to 17 percentage points. In 2014, of these 8 Lok Sabha seats, 4 each were held by LDF and UDF. In 2019, the LDF won 1.

Political pundits say the BJP is expected to give a tough fight in 6 seats – Thiruvananthapuram, Attingal, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Thrissur and Palakkad – where the LDF vote share had gone down in 2019 by five to 10 percentage points. However, in north Kerala, the contests will be direct – LDF vs UDF – with the BJP having a marginal presence.

Whether the BJP wins or not will be clear on June 4, but for now, there are enough indications that the LDF may see a comeback of sorts this time as the party has fielded strong candidates such as KK Shailaja, Thomas Isaac, Sunil Kumar and MV Jayarajan. In 2019, the LDF managed to win only Alappuzha.

The 2024 election campaign, however, has been different.

Apart from local issues, the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), the Centre’s alleged mishandling of the ethnic riots in Manipur and the fraud at cooperative banks controlled by the CPI(M) were some of the issues that voters talked about. The final leg of the campaign was riddled with war of words between Rahul Gandhi and chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan over the former’s allegations that the Enforcement Directorate was “lenient” with the CM over allegations of government money given to a company run by Vijayan’s daughter. The CPI(M) has also alleged that the Congress MP failed to adequately raise Kerala’s issues in the Parliament, especially related to the Centre allegedly not disbursing funds to the state.

Edge for the UDF

Most opinion polls have given an edge to the UDF, though the seat count varies in different opinion polls. While an ABP News-C-Voter poll predicted all 20 seats for the UDF, the Mathrubhumi News-P MARQ survey gave it 14 seats, with five seats going to the LDF. The NDA is predicted to get one seat, as per the latter.

The trend in 17 Lok Sabha elections since 1956, when Kerala was formed, has been that Congress-led alliances have been far more successful than those led by the Communist parties, with the UDF winning more seats than the Left in 13 of them. The explanation has often been that the Congress, compared to the Left which is only present in a few states, is better placed to form governments at the Centre.

However, the voting pattern changes completely in assembly elections in which the Left have had reasonable success. An example is when the LDF returned to power in Kerala with 99 seats out of the 140-member-strong in the assembly in 2021, just two years after the coalition lost 19 of the 20 seats it contested in the parliamentary elections. “Many see that the Left is no longer in a position to challenge the BJP at the Centre. Therefore, some Left voters also prefer Congress in the national elections,” said political analyst Asharaf A, who is also the head of the department of Islamic and West Asian studies at University of Kerala.

Like 2019, the UDF this time also enjoys the advantage of not being in power either in the state or at the Centre, thereby leaving no scope for anti-incumbency. However, by fielding 18 of its 19 sitting MPs, the UDF has exposed some of its MPs to allegations of non-performance in Parliament and in their respective constituencies, experts believe.

“The UDF has the support of a section of Christians and Muslims, key minority demographics in the state. But there is a feeling within the Muslim community that the performance of some of its MPs has not been good, particularly with respect to minority issues. So, the contests in those constituencies will be tighter,” Asharaf said, adding that the CPI(M) has turned the “non-performance” of Congress MPs into a poll issue.

BJP’s vote share

Although Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the state almost half a dozen times since January this year, the key question is what would be the BJP’s vote share and its impact on the other two political fronts. The party’s vote share has increased from 1.75% in 1984 to 13% in 2019 and is expected to rise further. The BJP’s performance may also decide the fortunes of UDF and LDF candidates. In 2019, the party saw a big jump in its vote share in constituencies such as Thrissur, Alappuzha, Pathanamthitta, Palakkad, Attingal and Thiruvananthapuram.

In Attingal, a CPI(M) area secretary, who did not wish to be named, said, “The BJP candidate in 2019, Sobha Surendran, made significant inroads into the LDF’s Ezhava vote bank, resulting in the victory of the Congress candidate there. In the backdrop of the Sabarimala protests, there was a shift of our Hindu voter base towards the BJP and the Congress. This time, we are expecting the return of all those votes.”

Locals claim that the BJP’s influence among communities such as Ezhava, a strong vote bank of the CPI(M), has increased and it would impact the LDF more than the UDF. “I doubt whether the BJP can actually win a seat in Kerala this time too. But yes, there could be a rise in their vote share,” political analyst Sunnykutty Abraham said.

Abraham believes the Hindutva sentiment is now slowly growing in the state and the BJP can take credit for it. “At the grassroot level, there are a lot of CPI(M) workers and sympathisers among whom such sentiments exist. The over-the-top agitation by the LDF on issues such as the CAA could also result in them losing their primary Hindu voter base to parties like the BJP,” he said. Experts also said the BJP’s rise may dent the Congress vote bank among the upper caste Hindus to some extent.

Meanwhile, the BJP pitting the CPI(M) and Congress against each other – part of the INDIA bloc national alliance, yet opponents in Kerala – does not seem to have much impact on ground. “This is not an issue in Kerala,” Abraham added.