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“These seats are a huge chunk of the total (224) assembly seats in the state and is also a reason for change in government every five years in Karnataka. So many swing seats also indicates the inclination of the people to punish the incumbent heavily,” said A Narayana, a professor of public policy and governance at the Azim Premji University.

In 2018, the data shows that the BJP won 54 of these seats enabling the party to win 104 constituencies and emerge the largest party in the assembly. However, the Congress, which won 19 of these seats, formed the government with the Janata Dal (Secular), which won eight of these. The Congress won 78 seats overall and the JD (S) 37.

An analysis of the swing, or flip seats shows that the BJP was able to win the most of these seats in Lingayat dominated regions and coastal Karnataka while the JD (S) won most of them in southern Karnataka.

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The BJP won all 19 of these seats in the Bombay-Karnataka region, considered a Lingayat stronghold, a reason for the ruling party relying heavily on the Lingayat strong man, B S Yediyurappa, to deliver again in 2023. Yediyurappa is not contesting and has announced that he will campaign across the state for the party.

The Bombay-Karnataka region has highest number of seats (50) for any region in the state. Of these 50, in 2018, the BJP won 30, Congress, 17 and JD (S) 2. One reason for this was the BJP declaring Yediyurappa its chief ministerial candidate, and its promise to increase reservation for the community, which the party has delivered just before 2023 assembly polls in March 2023.

Most of the flip seats, 20, are in Central Karnataka, where Lingayats and another dominant community, Vokkaligas comprise the bulk of the electorate. The BJP was able to win 16 of these flip seats , and 21 of the total 37 assembly seats in the region. In all, the Congress won 13 seats and JD (S) 2.

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Even though considered a BJP bastion, coastal Karnataka has maximum number of flip seats as percentage of the total seats for any region. Ten of the 19 seats in the region have seen a different party winning every five years since 2008, the data shows.

In 2018, the BJP won 16 and Congress 3 of these. The BJP won all flip seats. About 20% of the population in coastal Karnataka is Muslims followed by communities such as Billavas, Bunts and Mogaveeras. Of the 16 MLAs, the BJP has dropped two incumbents including Udupi MLA, Raghupati Bhat. The BJP won all five seats in Udupi district in 2018.

In the Hyderabad-Karnataka region, the BJP won 21 of the 40 assembly seats, including 12 swing seats, in 2018. The Congress won 15 and the JD (S) five. The region is one of the most backward parts of the state.

The Southern and Bengaluru regions have 14 and 2 flip seats respectively, least in proportion to the total seats in these regions, 46 and 32.

In the Southern region, also known as Old Mysuru and dominated by Vokkaligas, the JD (S) won 26 seats followed by the Congress (11 ) and the BJP (9). Of the 14 flip seats, the BJP won 4, the Congress 3 and the JD(S), 7. This election, the BJP has nominated 41 candidates from the dominant Vokkaliga community in the region.

In Bengaluru, the BJP won 17, the Congress 11 and JD (S) 4.

Of the total 224 assembly constituencies in the state, data shows that are only 60 assembly constituencies where the same party has won since 2008, according to the data. Of these, 27 are with the Congress, 23 with the BJP and 10 with the JD (S).

Narayana said the data clearly shows that swing seats decides which party will form the government in Karnataka. “Many of the seats are in Lingayat and coastal belts and so many swing seats is also a reason for no party getting re-elected after every five years.”