Karnataka elections: Congress builds strategy on corruption in BJP govt, sops

Incumbent governments have been ousted in every Karnataka assembly election starting the 1989 one, although some have clutched on to power by forging post-results coalitions.

But such encouraging trends rarely come with guarantees—the Congress learnt this the hard way. Two years ago, in neighbouring Kerala, the LDF government defeated the Congress’ alliance to retain power, breaking a 44-year-old record of a change in government every 5 years.

From party sympathizers in Udupi or Ramnagara to former Rajya Sabha MP BK Hariprasad to Congress general secretary Randeep Surjewala, everyone speaks of two key elements of the Congress’ strategy for this election. First, four direct benefit schemes—a formula that has helped the BJP curve out a unique vote bank of beneficiaries in the 2019 national election. Two, highlighting the alleged corruption and misgovernance of the Basavaraj Bommai-led Bharatiya Janata Party government.

In Karnataka’s Humnabad on Monday, Rahul Gandhi said: “The Congress party is making four promises to you and these promises will be made into laws in the first cabinet meeting. The first promise and perhaps the most important promise, which we call Grihalakshmi, (is to give) ₹2,000 per month to every woman in the family. Second promise, Griha Jyoti (of) 200 units of free electricity per month to every family.” The other two poll promises are Anna Bhagya or 10 kg rice to every poor family every month and Yuva Nidhi, ₹3,000 per month to every graduate and ₹1,500 per month to every diploma holder in Karnataka for 2 years.

The schemes, aiming to tackle price rise, signal a shift from the party’s policy push for rights-based legislation to the creation of individual beneficiaries, and Gandhi’s speech promised a deadline -- the first cabinet meeting should the party come to power. The Congress usually avoids such deadlines arguing the government has five years to fulfil its promises.

Hariprasad claims the allegations of “40% commission government“ against the Bommai administration was not coined by the Congress. “This allegation was made by the Karnataka Contractors Association. The Association even wrote a letter to the Prime Minister’s Office alleging that payments are withheld and they are demanding 40% commission.”

On November 25, 2021, the contractors association said in its letter to the PMO: “Thus, the local registered contractors of our state have (to) pay to the extent of 25% to 30% (for elected representatives & others) of the tender amount before starting the works. Such being the position how (will) the contractor undertakes good work.”

Then, in April 2022, a contractor Santosh K Patil died by suicide , after accusing state minister Eshwarappa of corruption. The minister was subsequently cleared after an investigation by the state CID.

In January this year, the association’s president D Kempanna, reiterated charges of corruption, mentioned the 40% cut, and said “we have given all documents regarding 40 per cent commission to our lawyer and he will submit them before the court,” as he demanded a probe monitored by the high court.

The state government has flatly denied any charges of corruption. In Udipi, Karnataka’s social welfare minister Kota Srinivas Poojari told HT, “Our CM has said on several occasions “show us the proof”. No one has shown us any proof. Moreover, I throw the same challenge as far as my department is concerned. My budget of 19,000 crore has been spent and there is no allegation against me.”

Caste equations for the Congress

But the Congress, which swept to power in 2013 is aware of why it fared badly in 2018. In 2013, it won 122 seats in the 224 seat assembly while the BJP won 40. In 2018, it won 78 to the BJP’s 104, but formed a government along with the Janata Dal (Secular) that lasted for a year.

“(BS) Yeddiyurappa rejoined the BJP in 2018,” said a senior Congress leader.

From its 40 seats in 2013, the BJP secured 104 seats in 2018 as former chief minister Yeddiyurappa, the BJP’s most powerful Lingayat leader returned to the party, disbanding his own party, the KJP, which he formed in 2012 after being ousted from the BJP over corruption charges. In 2018, the Congress lost most of its seats in the central and northern Karnataka region.

This year, the BJP has offered 52 seats to Lingayat candidates, relying on Yeddiyurappa to deliver on those seats. The Congress, in its first two lists, fielded 41 members of the dominant community. that accounts for 16-17% of the state’s population. Earlier this week, the Congress got a shot in the arm when BJP stalwart and former CM Jagdish Shettar (Lingayat) left the party after he was denied ticket. The Congress lost no time in inducting him and naming him its candidate in his Hubli Dharwad constituency. Earlier, another Lingayat leader Laxman Savadi joined the Congress from the BJP under similar circumstances.

According to a data from Lok Dhaba of Ashoka University, the BJP drastically improved its vote share in central Karnataka from 12.1% to 32.5%-- the steepest rise among all regions of the state -- in 2018. The Congress’ vote share dropped in Bangalore and coastal Karnataka in 2018 and marginally improved in other parts.

The Lok Dhaba data also showed how the BJP’s strike rate in winning seats shot up to 46.85% in 2018 from 17.9% in 2013, while the Congress’ rate dropped from 54.46% to 35.45% in the same period even.

Interestingly, the Congress’ vote share has remained higher than the BJP’s in all assembly elections in the state.

Congress vs Kumaraswamy

If Yeddiyurappa’s presence poses a challenge to the Congress ine central, coastal and northern Karnataka, so does the JDS’ strong following among the Vokkaliga voters in the Old Mysuru region in southern Karnataka.

Southern Karnataka, as poll data shows, is the only region where the JDS has been able to increase its seat share as well as vote share in 2018. More than half of the JDS seats comes from the Vokkaliga belt of Old Mysuru, the state’s largest electoral battlefield with 64 seats. The BJP too has increased its seat share in this area while the Congress has lost ground.

In this election, the BJP is eyeing the Old Mysuru region, especially the Mysuru and Mandya belt for further gains. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah have already visited Mysuru and Mandya and an intensified campaign is expected in this region. The BJP has already announced 41 seats for Vokkaliga candidates while Congress’ first two lists allotted 22 seats for Vokkaligas.

Siddaramaiah factor

The Congress is looking at the SC and OBC votes with former CM Siddaramaiah, a Kuruba leader, being the states’s most popular OBC face. OBCs, roughly 22% of Karnataka voters, are the largest class group in the state. In the past few days, the Congress has reignited the issue of case census, with Rahul Gandhi demanding that the government release the Socio-Economic Caste Census data and Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge shooting off a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the same issue.

“The party needs Siddaramaiah for its outreach to OBC voters. For the past many years, OBC votes decide the fate of Karnataka. While Prime Minister Modi has been able to capture OBC votes in other parts of the country, in Karnataka, it’s a different issue and Siddaramaiah is a formidable leader,” said another senior Congress leader.