Jharkhand exit polls 2024: Most pollsters predict NDA win; Axis My India says INDIA ahead

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance has been projected to win the 2024 Jharkhand Assembly polls, with exit polls predicting 42-53 seats in the saffron party's kitty.

Matrize projected 42-47 seats for NDA, 25-30 seats for the INDIA bloc and 1-4 for Others. Meanwhile, Peoples Pulse predicted 44-53 seats for the NDA, 25-37 for INDIA bloc and 5-9 seats for Others.

The Times Now-JVC pollster predicted a 40-44 seats win for the NDA, while the INDIA bloc has been projected to bag a close second of 30-40 seats, leaving Others with one.

In contrast to majority of the pollsters, Axis My India projected a massive victory for the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-Congress alliance, giving 53 seats to the INDIA bloc, 25 to NDA and three to others. P-Marq projections have also given an edge to the INDIA bloc with 37-47 seats, leaving NDA with 31-40 seats.

Dainik Bhaskar predicted a neck-and-neck battle in the exit polls, projecting 37-40 seats for NDA and 36-39 for the INDIA bloc. Electoral Edge also predicted a win for the INDIA bloc, showing 42 seats for JMM. It projected the BJP to win 32 seats and Others to secure 7 seats.

Why are exit polls conducted

An election exit poll is a survey based on the interviews taken of voters when they exit the polling booths after casting their votes. Pollsters predictions may or may not turn out to be correct.

Exit polls, though not always accurate, are conducted because they provide an idea of where voters might swing and what can be expected from the elections.

Jharkhand Assembly elections 2024

The 81-member Jharkhand Assembly went to polls in two phases, on November 13 and November 20. The counting of votes for the state will coincide with that for Maharashtra Assembly elections, on Saturday, November 23.

In the first phase, 43 constituencies went to polls, while the remaining 38 seats went to polls in the second phase.

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There are a total of 2.6 crore voters in Jharkhand, among which there are 1.31 crore male voters and 1.29 crore female voters. As many as 66.84 lakh people are young voters (age 20-29), while 11.84 lakh are first time voters (age 18-19).

The Bharatiya Janata Party and Hemant Soren's Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) have been at loggerheads in the state elections ever since the campaigning for the same began. They have been locking horns over several issues, including those of tribal rights, immigrants in the state, and corruption.

The BJP contested on 68 seats, while its alliance partner All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) on 10 seats, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) on two, and Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) on just one.

Meanwhile, among the INDIA bloc constituents, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) is contesting on 41 seats, Congress on 30, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) on 6, and Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) on four.

What did the 2019 Jharkhand exit polls say

The previous Jharkhand election, which took place between November 30, 2019 and December 20, 2019, saw the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), comprising Congress and JMM, emerging victorious.

Hemant Soren-led JMM bagged 30 seats, the BJP secured 25 and the Congress won 16 seats.

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In the 2019 exit polls, the then India Today-Axis My India projected an edge for the JMM-Congress-led UPA. It had said that UPA would bag 43 seats, while the BJP would win 27.

ABP-Voter had predicted a hung assembly, wherein it said that UPA would bag 35 seats and the BJP would secure 32 seats.

Meanwhile, Times Now had projected a 44 seat-win for the UPA and 28 seats in the BJP's kitty.