Monsoon to be below normal in northwest India: IMD
Monsoon is critical for India’s economy as 51% of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40% of production, is rain-fed
Monsoon rainfall is expected to be below normal at <92% of long period average (LPA) in northwest India with an error margin of +/-4% while it is expected to be normal in the rest of the country, India Meteorological Department said on Friday. Overall monsoon is expected to be normal in the country at 96 to 104% of LPA, which is based on rainfall data from 1971 to 2020. It is likely to be normal at 94 to 106% of LPA in the northeast, central, and south Peninsular.
India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s Environment Monitoring and Research Centre (EMRC) head DS Pai said this is an El Nino year associated with subdued rainfall in the northwest and central India and above-normal rainfall in the northeast. He said in a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) year, monsoon rainfall is compensated. “It is El Nino and positive IOD this year...we are expecting the impact of El Nino in central India to be compensated by positive IOD. But that may not happen in the case of northwest India.”
Below-normal rainfall in northwest India is expected to impact agriculture. “We recommend a regional plan based on our forecast. Our extended-range forecast and the short-range forecast will also help them plan. We are also issuing advisories for farmers. We are regularly briefing all ministries on the outlook.”
Monsoon rainfall in June is expected to be below normal rainfall at <92% of LPA. Only some areas of south peninsular India, northwest, extreme north, and some isolated pockets of the northeast are expected to receive above-normal rain. Above-normal temperatures are likely in most parts of the country in June. Only some areas of the extreme north and parts of the southern peninsula are expected to record normal to below normal temperatures, IMD said.
There is a nearly 100% probability of El Nino conditions during monsoon months. They are expected to continue until next year. El Nino is characterised by an unusual warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which has a high correlation with warmer summers and weaker monsoon rains in India.
Positive IOD, which refers to the temperature differential between the western and eastern Indian Oceans, is good for the southwest monsoon in India. It has a direct correlation with a good monsoon.
The 2023 El Nino is expected to develop following a triple dip in La Nina (2020-22). La Nina is the opposite of El Nino and is characterised by cooler currents in the equatorial eastern Pacific.
Monsoon is critical for India’s economy as 51% of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40% of production, is rain-fed. With 47% of the country’s population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, a bountiful monsoon has a direct correlation with a healthy rural economy.
