Up to 73% of 1,091 bird species likely to shift due to climate change: Study
The paper titled “Projected Shifts in Bird Distribution in India under Climate Change” flagged the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in India
As many as 66 to 73% of the 1,091 bird species four Indian researchers studied to understand the impact of climate change were likely to shift to higher elevations or northwards by 2070, according to a paper published in March in peer-reviewed and open-access journal Diversity.
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In the paper titled “Projected Shifts in Bird Distribution in India under Climate Change”, researchers Arpit Deomurari, Ajay Sharma, Dipankar Ghose, and Randeep Singh flagged the unprecedented impacts of climate change on biodiversity in India. They concluded that 58–59% of the species studied stand to lose a portion of their distribution ranges. The distribution ranges of 41-40% of the species were expected to increase.
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Deomurari, the lead researcher who is associated with the World Wide Fund for Nature-India, said they used data citizen scientists have collected and developed fine-tuned species distribution models to predict 1,091 terrestrial bird species that would be distributed in India by 2070 on two climatic surfaces (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) using maximum entropy-based species distribution algorithms.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has chosen Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs to represent a broad range of climate outcomes.
Deomurari said their findings will inform national-scale conservation planning and management of birds in response to climate change and determine the future conservation priorities in India.
The paper cited RCP 4.5 and 8.5 and said bird species diversity will significantly increase in regions above 2500 m in elevation. “Both RCP scenarios predict extensive changes in the species richness of the western Himalayas, Sikkim, northeast India, and the Western Ghats regions by 2070.”
The four researchers conducted the study to understand how climate change will affect the range and distribution of Indian birds, and the impact on species richness under different climate change scenarios.
The researchers found the impact of climate change on the range reduction of partially migratory and migratory species is higher-- 62.88% and 68.01% versus 54.08% for sedentary species. They modelled 42 species from 78 endemic species in India. By 2070, almost 75% of endemic bird species are likely to have reduced climatically suitable areas.
The researchers also tracked how species diversity varied with elevation. They discovered for all the species investigated together, the turning point occurred at 2000-2500 m, with diversity rising above it and falling below it.
The study showed that long-distance migratory birds’ habitat is more vulnerable to climate change. The migration processes of these birds are strongly tied to climate.
The paper said that climate change is very likely to pose a greater threat to migratory birds as their range areas are more likely to shift northward and diminish in size.
The range sizes of around 22–27% of bird species may increase but they will still be vulnerable if their extended/new suitable habitats lie outside of protected areas, or in an increasingly developed territory.
Deomurari said the study has resulted in novel, high-resolution maps of terrestrial bird species richness across India. “...we predict predominantly northward shifts in species ranges, similar to predictions made for avifauna in other regions, such as Europe and the USA.”
