India to overtake China in population by July 1: UN
WPP projections show that India’s population will reach a peak population of 1.697 billion in 2063 . China’s population, which started declining in 2022 is expected to fall to 1.168 billion by that time
The United Nations expects India’s population to touch 1.429 billion latest by July 1, which will make it the most populous country in the world for the first time. This number is expected to be 2.96 million more than the population of China. The numbers are from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)’s State of World Population 2023 report released on Wednesday. Official population figures for India are not available after 2011 – it was 1.21 billion back then – as the government has indefinitely postponed the 2021 census citing the Covid-19 pandemic.
Almost 360 million of India’s population is under the age of 15 years, and 600 million under the age of 40 years, bestowing the country with a demographic dividend of a kind that no other country, including China, has enjoyed in recent decades. With the right focus on education and health, this young population could power India’s economy, experts believe.
India’s population could have already exceeded China’s anytime since January 1, and if it hasn’t, it will definitely do so latest by July 1. The exact date when the crossover has happened is difficult to ascertain, Anna Jefferys, Media and Crisis Communications Advisor, UNFPA, said over email.
To be sure, UNFPA’s findings are not exactly new as the numbers used in the report are based on World Population Prospects (WPP) data released in July 2022 by the UN. HT had analysed the WPP numbers when they were released (https://bit.ly/3A8hBNI).
WPP projections show that India’s population will reach a peak population of 1.697 billion in 2063 . China’s population, which started declining in 2022 is expected to fall to 1.168 billion by that time.
While India’s population will keep increasing for the next four decades, its population growth rate is already on a declining trajectory. The 1.07% compound annual growth rate between 2011 and 2023 is the lowest for any 12-year growth period since 1950-1962. “What we can say is that China’s population reached its peak last year and started to decline, and that while India’s population is growing, its rate of population growth has been declining since 1980,” Jefferys said.
China is doing better than India in the context of life expectancy. Women in China live until 82 years, and men until 76 years; the figures for India are 74 and 71 respectively, the report says.
While the crossover is symbolic, it is a demographic advantage for India to reap in the years ahead, experts said. “Its young population in a consumer-driven economy will be a major factor in driving the country’s development, and presents an enormous opportunity for the country’s economic growth,” Andrea Wojner, UNFPA Representative, India, and Country Director, Bhutan, said. “The country (India) will not just enjoy an abundant supply of labour from this working age cohort, but the rising domestic consumption should help the nation tide over any external shocks, a fact well demonstrated during the Covid-19 pandemic.”
2023 WPP data, which is the basis of the latest UNFPA report also shows that India is also a significantly younger country than China is at the moment. 25% of India’s population is believed to be in the 0-15 years age group, which is eight percentage points more than China’s . The 15-40 years age group also has a bigger proportion in India (42%) than China (33%). The 40-65 years age group and 65 years and above age group, on the other hand, are 9.8 and 7.2 percentage points bigger than India in China.
“I want to tell you that the population dividend does not depend on quantity but also quality. Population is important and talents also important”, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin told AFP responding to queries on questions on the UNFPA findings.
China’s population decreased by 850,000 people in 2022, the first population decline in China since 1961, according to sample survey estimates published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published on January 17. While the decline in China’s population in 1961 was the result of a famine unleashed by Mao Zedong’s policy of forced industrialization, the 2022 decline follows a long-term trend of decreasing population growth. The number of births in China did not increase as expected since Beijing abolished the one child policy and then allowed even three children. Primary reasons include rising costs of living, childcare and education.
“There is no perfect population number for either country, but more important is how India and China can support their populations,” UNFPA’s Jefferys said.
What needs to be kept in mind is that India’s demographic trends show significant variation at the state-level with state-specific total fertility rates – simply speaking it measures births per woman – varying from one to three with the numbers having fallen below replacement levels in some southern states. “An ageing population in southern India can meet its labour demands from the greater proportion of the youthful population in the northern and eastern parts of the country through conducive policies on inter-state migration,” Wojner said.
To be sure, India exploiting its demographic advantage of a young population is contingent on qualitative and quantitative expansion in employment opportunities for the current and future workforce. While India is the fastest growing major economy in the world, it faces a serious challenge on both these fronts. Post-pandemic employment data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) shows that youth unemployment continues to be very high despite an increase in unpaid employment (https://bit.ly/43FeD0V). Data from the ASER surveys shows that there has been a deterioration in learning levels in the post-pandemic period which does not bode well for skills and employability of the future workforce.
Overall, the UNFPA report called for a “radical rethink” of how population numbers are framed – urging politicians and media to abandon overblown narratives about population booms and busts. “Instead of asking how fast people are reproducing, leaders should ask whether individuals, especially women, are able to freely make their own reproductive choices – a question whose answer, too often, is no,” the UNFPA said in a statement, released with the report. “Women’s bodies should not be held captive to population targets,” says UNFPA Executive Director Dr. Natalia Kanem. “To build thriving and inclusive societies, regardless of population size, we must radically rethink how we talk about and plan for population change”, she added.
India’s population becoming larger than China’s is not necessarily a matter of celebration, said Himanshu, associate professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU).
“We have the potential to grow faster (economically) given the fact that we are growing (population-wise). However, the population that is growing can be a dividend only if it gainfully employed. Otherwise, it is doomed,” he said. This is in addition to the problem that the UN numbers are a projection when census could have given us a better idea of both India’s exact population and its demographic characteristics, he added.
