IMD predicts early summer

Most parts of India are likely to experience above-normal temperatures and increased heatwave days between March and May after what was the warmest February on record since 1901, the India Meteorological Department said on Friday.

The agency predicted that both maximum and minimum temperatures will remain above normal across most of the country through May, sparing only isolated parts of peninsular and northeast India, suggesting the spring season may have all but vanished this year.

“Above-normal number of heatwave days are likely over most parts of the country except over northeast India, extreme north India and southwestern and southern parts of peninsular India,” said DS Pai, senior scientist at IMD, during a virtual press conference.

The regions expected to face the brunt of the heat include Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and northern parts of Karnataka.

This warning comes as India recorded a mean monthly temperature of 22.04°C this February, which was 1.34°C higher than the long period average (LPA), making it the warmest February in 124 years of record-keeping. The previous highest mean temperature in February for the country was 21.99°C in 2016.

The country’s average monthly maximum temperature reached 29.07°C last month, 1.49°C above normal, making it the second warmest February in terms of daytime temperatures, behind only 2023 when the monthly average was 29.44°C.

Night-time temperatures were even more exceptional, with the average monthly minimum of 15.02°C setting a new record—about 1.2°C higher than the LPA. The previous highest minimum in February was 14.91°C in 2016.

The warm February conditions align with ongoing weather patterns that led to Delhi recording its warmest February night in 74 years on Thursday, with minimum temperatures soaring to 19.5°C—seven degrees above normal.

The IMD attributes the unusual heat partly to the behaviour of western disturbances, which typically bring cooler temperatures to northern India in winter.

“Though seven western disturbances were observed in February this time, as compared to a normal of five to six western disturbances, these moved in quick succession and did not have sufficient moisture. Thus, they mainly caused light rain or snowfall,” Pai explained.

Coldwaves were mostly absent across the northern plains this February, with night-time temperatures warmer than usual in northern and central India. “Barring the latest western disturbance which has been strong, most were feeble. Fog too was missing across most parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plains,” he added.

For March, the IMD forecasts normal rainfall (83-117% of LPA) likely across the country. The LPA for rainfall in March nationwide from 1971 to 2020 is 29.9 mm.

“The forecast suggests that above-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of Peninsular India and neighbouring regions of south of central India, while normal to below-normal rainfall is likely in the rest of the country,” the IMD said.

The weather agency noted that weak La Nina conditions are currently present but expected to weaken further in the months of March till May.

“From the monsoon season onwards, until the end of the year, ENSO neutral conditions are likely. Going forward, model forecasts are indicating a temperature increase, but El Nino conditions are highly unlikely,” Pai said.

Currently, large parts of northwest India are experiencing an active western disturbance, bringing widespread rain and snowfall. Heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy spells have been recorded at isolated places over Jammu, Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

Udhampur in Jammu and Kashmir logged 215.4mm of rainfall, followed by 163.7mm at Batote. In Himachal Pradesh, Seobagh logged 116.6mm of rainfall, while Pathankot-Fangota in Punjab received 122.6mm, IMD data showed.

This wet spell is expected to continue over northwest India till March 3, with a weak western disturbance then expected in the second week of March. “Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall and snowfall is likely over the Western Himalayan region from March 8 to 10,” the forecast stated.