How many seats will BJP win? Top economist Surjit Bhalla's prediction for Lok Sabha election 2024

Surjit Bhalla, a renowned economist and political analyst, anticipates that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party may surpass its 2019 polls performance in the ongoing 2024 Lok Sabha election.

In an interview with NDTV, Surjit Bhalla, whose new book ‘How We Vote’ details the voter's mindset, said Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party could end up winning 330 to 350 seats in the ongoing general elections.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA won 353 seats, including 303 for the BJP. The Congress bagged only 52 seats.

"Based on statistical possibility, they should get 330 to 350 seats on their own. This is just the BJP, not including its alliance partners," NDTV quoted Surjit Bhalla as saying. He added that the BJP would likely see a five to seven per cent rise in seats won compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

"It can be a wave election. Every election has a potential (to be a wave). But it may not also be a wave election," said the top economist.

How many seats will Opposition get?

According to Surjit Bhalla, the Congress may secure 44 seats, or 2 per cent less than what it won in the 2014 elections.

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"The problem with the (Opposition) alliance is the leadership. The economy matters the most, the leadership matters second. And both of them are in favour of the BJP. If the Opposition had selected a leader who could have a mass appeal or approximating half the appeal that Prime Minister Modi has, then I think it could be a contest," Surjit Bhalla told the news channel.

BJP's south boost

Surjit Bhalla also predicted the BJP may win at least five seats in Tamil Nadu, where the BJP has been traditionally a weak party. "I won't be surprised if, of all the places, the BJP in Tamil Nadu gain over five seats. In Kerala, maybe one or two," he said.

'BJP's vote share in south will increase': PM Modi

Surjit Bhalla's interview comes even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed confidence that the BJP's vote share in the south would increase in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections compared to previous polls.

In an interview with the Asianet News Network, Modi said, “You see Telangana, where our vote share has doubled. In the 2019 parliamentary elections, the BJP emerged as the single largest party in the South. The BJP has the highest number of MPs. I believe that in 2024 (the Lok Sabha elections), the vote share is going to increase compared to the previous elections. Seats will also increase.”