Google looks to Android’s future, with a wary eye on the past

Google has confirmed a series of changes, including the ability for phone makers to choose which individual Google apps they would like to pre-install on their phones, changing Android compatibility requirements to allow for customised variants as well as giving Android phone users the option to choose a default search engine via a choice screen.

“Implementation of these changes across the ecosystem will be a complex process and will require significant work at our end and, in many cases, significant efforts from partners, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and developers,” says Google India, in a statement.

The CCI imposed two fines on the tech giant, with a 1,337.76 crore penalty specifically for anti-competitive practices in relation to Android operating system, which the tech giant challenged in court.

Google insists there will be widespread repercussions with significant changes made to how Android is bundled in India’s smartphone ecosystem, something the CCI order demands. Could it mean more expensive phones, complication for app developers, increase data privacy risks for users and fragmentation within Android’s device ecosystem?

“Android has greatly benefited Indian users, developers, and OEMs and played a key role in India’s digital transformation. We remain committed to our users and partners and will cooperate with the CCI on the way forward, in parallel with our appeal,” a Google spokesperson said, in a statement.

Android’s reach makes it imperative to tackle anticompetitive behaviour. Latest numbers by web analysis platform StatCounter peg Android’s market share in India at 95.69 percent. Apple’s iOS has 3.54 percent share. Core to Android’s popularity, are affordable phones.

“India as a market offers an unprecedented untapped user base, which makes these remedies even more effective. These may well lead to a new Indian competitor in video hosting, mapping, web browsers or, dare we say it, search,” says Naval Chopra, Partner, Competition Law Practice at Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas and Company.

Breaking the bundle

The CCI order says Google used its dominant position to structure MADA, or Mobile Application Distribution Agreement, licensing with smartphone makers. These include Samsung, Xiaomi, OnePlus, Nokia, Vivo, Lava and Nothing, to name a few. Simply put, to use Android for phones without having to pay a licensing fee, phone makers must preload several Google apps.

The list of apps isn’t limited to Search, Google Maps, Google Chrome, YouTube, and Play Store.

“MADA assured that the most prominent search entry points i.e., search app, widget and chrome browser are pre-installed on Android devices, which accorded significant competitive edge to Google’s search services over its competitors,” the CCI noted, in their order.

The CCI wants this bundling to stop. “The competitors of these services could never avail the same level of market access which Google secured and embedded for itself through MADA,” says the order. The concern is rival apps are not always explored by the users, because Google apps getting prime positioning.

“OEMs will be able to license individual Google apps for pre-installation on their devices,” says Google India.

HT finds that while some Android phones allow you to disable certain Google apps, it isn’t standard practice. Most phones do not offer an option to disable or uninstall Play Services completely. Often, attempting to alter the behaviour of Google’s preloaded services, leads to system instability and app functionality breaks.

Lack of trust, built over time?

Rohan Verma, CEO and Executive Director at Indian tech company MapmyIndia, isn’t so sure about the changes and believes the reasoning of complex and significant work given by Google, is a tactic to stall.

“Question is - when Google was aware since Oct 20, 2022, why they didnt start the work then itself. Damages to the ecosystem have been happening for 15 years due to Google’s anti-competitive activities,” he says.

“Rather than follow all 10 directives of CCI, Google writes that they have informed CCI how they will comply - and listed out just a few points, and that too in the manner how Google wants to comply. Why is Google not complying with all 10 directives,” he adds.

Phone makers are mostly happy to go along with MADA in its current configuration because Google allows them further freedom for customisations. That is handy for differentiation and in some cases, monetisation. Samsung’s One UI and Xiaomi’s MIUI are a result of that flexibility.

Verma illustrates how bundling prevents users from experimenting with apps that may offer more than Google’s own apps. Their Mappls app, an alternative to Google Maps, may be an example.

“Mappls Junction View helps users drive and navigate safely when approaching flyovers, telling them through 3D photo-realistic guidance whether to climb or avoid, preventing confusion and accidents. Yet, because Google has forced preloading of its Google Maps app which doesn’t provide this feature, Indians at large don’t know and benefit from this,” says Verma.

MapmyIndia launched its online maps in 2004, before Google Maps arrived on the scene globally, a year later.

More expensive phones on the horizon?

Google insists un-bundling their apps will break the open source and free structure of Android. This cost will subsequently be passed on by phone makers to customers, driving up prices of smartphones.

It could be significantly detrimental for affordable Android phones, which make up a large demographic.

The Indian smartphone market can ill afford a prolonged slowdown. Research firm Canalys indicates India’s smartphone shipments in 2022 clocked 151.6 million units, which is a 6 percent decline compared with 2021.

A subplot in this evolving picture is Xiaomi losing second position to rivals Vivo, while Samsung holds top spot, with a market share of 21 percent.

“The argument however is contradictory as competition breeds innovation which only makes technology more affordable for everyone. Google itself has pointed out that the prices of smartphone devices have dropped drastically over the last 5 years,” says Rakesh Deshmukh, Co-founder and CEO of Indus OS, an Indian app and content discovery platform.

Incidentally, we bear witness to an unfolding trend. Data from International Data Corporation, or IDC, indicated that as of the quarter ending March last year, the average selling price of smartphones was around ₹19,000 and up from ₹15,100 two years ago.

It may be a hard sell for Google to insist any slowdown, or price increase, will be purely because Android’s methods are being reined in.

Phone makers’ launch strategies as well as economic conditions have dictated changes. “The mass segment of below US$200 has seen fewer new launches. On top of this, inflationary stress is impacting consumer demand,” Navkendar Singh, Associate Vice President, Devices Research, IDC India, South Asia and ANZ, had said at the time.

There is further reason for worry. Counterpoint Research estimates India’s smartphone shipments in 2023 will witness only a slight rebound. India currently has more than 600 million smartphone users. 5G will provide a push for sales in 2023.

“The weak demand was especially felt in the entry and mid-level price bands owing to the increase in retail prices due to the rise in component prices and inflationary macro environment,” says Ankit Malhotra, Analyst at Counterpoint.

Who manages security updates?

There is the sense, though Google has not said it in as many words, that the responsibility of security updates for any customised Android versions, also called “forks”, will lie with the device manufacturer.

“We’re updating the Android compatibility requirements to introduce changes for partners to build non-compatible or forked variants,” is all Google India says, before talking about how requirements for regular security updates will add to costs for phone makers, something they will inevitably pass on to buyers.

“Since incompatible Android forks will not support the security and user safety features that Google provides, security responsibilities for these devices will instead fall to the OEMs, who will need to invest extensively in creating consistent, all-year-round security upgrades themselves,” says a Google India spokesperson.

There is no clarity on whether security patches will not be available for phones with Google Services preinstalled, but with Google’s apps unbundled.

Is Android without Google’s apps viable?

Android without Google may come with a very different experience, something many of us may find a challenge to get used to.

Huawei, their exile from the Android ecosystem due to complex political situation aside, have proved its achievable. They still have access to AOSP, or Android Open Source Project.

AOSP is often confused with “stock” Android, but that isn’t the case. An AOSP stage of Android doesn’t have Google Mobile Services, or GMS. Those apps come later. GMS is core to MADA licensing. Huawei cannot use them due to restrictions on accessing technologies from US tech companies. They replaced GMS with their services, including an alternate application stores.

The eFoundation, a not-for-profit, has developed /e/OS, which you can think of as Android that has been completely de-Googled. Everything stripped away, including Google apps and services. Alternatives are in place. Mozilla provides geolocation services including GPS data, open source microG replaces Google services and advanced privacy features such as web tracker management, are built in.

The /e/OS can be installed on more than 200 phone models, including those from OnePlus, Samsung, Sony, Xiaomi and Google’s own Pixel smartphones. “The /e/OS sends no information to Google or other third parties and to the /e/OS developers,” says a 2021 study by the University of Edinburgh and Trinity College Dublin, Ireland.

Apps you use: A more inclusive chapter?

Google contends that by unbundling Google’s apps including Play Store, Android’s application store, app developers will have a higher cost including for distribution. The alternatives are third party app stores, which Android does not officially recognise. They require some workarounds to install on Android devices.

“The penalties imposed by the CCI on Google revolve around how the tech behemoth has abused its dominant position in the market to resort to unfair practices in the Android mobile operating system (OS) and the Play Store ecosystem,” says Ritesh Malik, Director at Alliance for Digital India Foundation, or ADIF.

The allegations of anticompetitive behaviour stems from how users aren’t always given a chance to weigh alternatives. “Google prohibits uninstallation of Google Maps,” N. Venkataraman, the lawyer representing CCI, had argued in court.

Mandatory pre-installation of apps reduces incentive for users to search for or download any other app. Play Store also plugs into Google’s own billing system to, which takes a cut from developers for each app purchase and subscription transaction.

“In fact, it scuttled Indian entrepreneurs in the Android ecosystem with unfair and restrictive Google policies,” says Indus OS’ Deshmukh. He says more inclusive software innovation will fuel growth of Android in India. “This will also provide a level playing field, by ensuring unrestricted distribution within the Android ecosystem,” he adds.

Microsoft Edge, Vivaldi, and Firefox are competent Google Chrome alternatives. DuckDuckGo can replace Google Search. Outlook, ProtonMail and Spark can do everything Gmail does. MapmyIndia MappIs, and OpenStreetMap are Google Maps alternatives. Dropbox and Box can be used instead of Google Drive.

MapmyIndia’s Verma tells us of the time Google used monopoly to unlisted their navigation app. “During COVID in 2020, MapmyIndia’s app was showing people nearby containment zones as well as testing and treatment centres, helping them stay safe, something which Google Maps didn’t provide then. But Google removed the app from the Google Play Store,” he says.

Google never clarified why the app was taken down, but after some brouhaha on social media, the MappIs app was restored.

There is of course inherent risk when using third-party app stores, which may not have robust monitoring for malware and malicious apps. These apps can potentially expose data on a user’s phone, to hackers.

If a phone maker skips Play Store, users will not have access to Google Play Protect, Android app integrity check tool, which can disable and uninstall malicious apps.

How the EU ensured choice

The European Union (EU) fined Google $4.3 billion in 2018 for anticompetitive behaviour, including app bundling as part of Android contractual agreements. Google lost an appeal last year.

After the EU ruling, Google had to present users with alternatives. That led to a ‘Choice Screen’ appearing on Android devices sold Europe and UK, from September 2021. Users could select default app or service for web browsers and search engine.

Google India argued in court that CCI has replicated the EU’s anti-trust order. CCI says that isn’t the case. “We have not cut, copy and paste,” said CCI’s lawyer Venkataraman.

“The CCIs wide ranging remedies go beyond Europe and will force Google to change the way it does business. It will open markets for Google’s competitors, who have long been marginalized by the tech behemoth’s vice-like grip over the Android ecosystem,” says Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas and Company’s Chopra.

Fragmentation is big risk for Android

There is a risk Android could revert to an earlier era where customised versions or ‘forks’, were commonplace. Not by choice, but compulsion. In 2015, Android struggled with fragmentation issues, where a lot of older versions soldiered on, with no or delayed updates.

Over time, Google simplified updates, to an extent. According to latest official Android distribution numbers, Android 13 is running on 5.2 percent of all devices, less than six months after launch. The previous version, Android 12, has an 18.9 percent share.

Contrast this with the summer of 2015. Only 2.6% of phones ran the then latest Android Lollipop 5.1 version and only 15.5% were updated to Android Lollipop 5.0 version. It meant less than 20% of devices were running the latest two Android iterations.

“Lack of robust and consistent security upgrades will leave users of those devices exposed to cybercrime, bugs, and malware, which is most troubling for the millions of new internet users who are especially vulnerable,” insists a Google India spokesperson.

If it is left to phone makers to ensure regular security and feature updates, chances are the share of older Android versions, will increase in the future. Phone makers tend to prioritise new products, not software for older devices.