Exit polls 2023: BJP tipped for wins in Nagaland, Tripura; tight in Meghalaya

The Bharatiya Janata Party will likely retain power in Tripura with help from the Indigenous People's Front of Tripura, and will almost certainly form the government in Nagaland alongside the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party, while Meghalaya could witness a hung Assembly, exit polls said Monday evening after voting concluded for elections in the three north-eastern states;

Meghalaya and Nagaland voted today while Tripura voted on February 16. Each state has a 60-seat Assembly, with the majority mark set at 31 seats.

FULL COVERAGE | Exit pollsters predict BJP wins in Nagaland, Tripura

The Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura elections - the first of at least nine state polls this year, with Congress-ruled Rajasthan and the southern states of Telangana and Karnataka also up for grabs - are being seen as preliminaries for the 2024 election, in which the BJP is bidding for a third term at the centre.

Disclaimer: Exit polls can often be wrong.

Tripura exit polls

India Today-Axis My India has predicted an easy win for the BJP and the IPFT, giving them between 36 and 45 seats.

The Left alliance - which includes the Congress - is projected to win between six and 11 seats, although the Congress itself is predicted to draw a blank.

The Tipra Mothra - founded by royal family head Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma in 2019 - may win between nine and 16 seats.

It does not, however, appear to be plain sailing for the saffron party in Tripura,

Times Now-ETG Research gives it just 24 seats and gives the Congress a surprisingly large share - 21 seats. The Tipra Motha is expected to win 14 seats, meaning it will play - one way or another - the role of kingmaker.

Zee News-Matrize is a little more optimistic about the BJP's chances, giving prime minister Narendra Modi's party between 29 and 36 seats. The Congress is handed 13-21 seats and the Tipra Motha between 11 and 16 seats.

READ | BJP likely to get 2nd term in Tripura, Tipra Motha to make its mark

Nagaland exit polls

There is definitely more cause for celebration for the BJP in this state, with India Today, Times Now and Zee News each giving it a massive win.

Times Now predicts 39-49 seats for the BJP and zero for the Congress, with the Naga People's Front only expected to get between four and eight.

Between seven and 17 seats are expected to head to independent candidates and those from smaller outfits, underlining the extent of the Congress' loss.

Similarly, Zee News gives the BJP 35-43 seats and two-five to the NPF, while the Congress (at least) opens its account with one to three seats.

India Today predicts 38-48 seats for the BJP and three-eight for the NPF, with the Congress limited to just one to two seats.

Each of the three gives several seats to independents and others; Times Now gives seven to 17, Zee News gives six to 11 and India Today five to 15.

READ | BJP-NDPP alliance to sweep Nagaland, say exit polls

Meghalaya exit polls

All three exit polls predict a hung Assembly in Meghalaya.

India Today says the BJP is only expected to get between four and eight seats, with the Congress faring better - six to 12 - and the Trinamool Congress drawing a blank. Chief minister Conrad Sangma's National People's Party is predicted to emerge as the single biggest party with 18-24 seats.

The 17-29 seats given to independents and other candidates could prove key with the BJP and the Congress likely to jostle for power post counting.

Zee News gives the BJP between six and 11 seats and the Congress between three and six, and expects the NPP to emerge the big winner with 21-26 seats.

However, it also gives the Trinamool between eight and 13 and independents and others between 10-19, meaning there is an outside chance the Congress could cobble together a post-poll alliance to keep the BJP at bay here.

Finally, Times Now gives the BJP only three to six seats and the Congress only two to five. The NPP is given 18-26 (still not enough to claim power on its own) and, as with the Zee News and India Today exit polls, other candidates get an outsized 23-37 seats, meaning the race for Meghalaya will be long and arduous.

Counting of votes for all three states takes place on Thursday.