Exit poll predictions of Telangana, MP, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Mizoram: 10 takeaways

The stage for December 3 was set on Thursday as the exit poll predictions of the five state assembly elections – Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Mizoram – came in projecting a tough battle between the Congress and the BJP in at least three of these states. Assembly election 2023 results will be crucial as this is the semi-final before the 2024 general elections. Exit poll predictions, however, often go wrong.

Assembly Elections 2023: Full Coverage

Exit poll results of 5 states: Here are 10 takeaways

Telangana

1. Telangana can spring a big surprise if the exit poll predictions are to be believed. Congress may come to power pushing incumbent Bharat Rashtra Samithi to the second and the BJP to a distant third, the projections said. This will be the first to happen as since the formation of Telangana in 2014, K Chandrashekar Rao remained the chief minister of the state. This is also the first to happen after KCR's party which was formed in 2001 -- with the demand for a separate state – went national and changed its name to Bharat Rashtra Samithi.

2. According to India TV-CNX exit polls, the Congress may win 63-79 seats while BRS would win 31-47 seats in the 119-member assembly. Jan ki Baat's prediction is that the Congress may win 48-64 seats, BRS 40-55 and the BJP 7-13. TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat exit polls projected 49-59 seats for the Congress and 48-58 for the BRS in a neck-and-neck fight. Republic TV-Matrize has predicted a close fight with the Congress at 58-68 seats and the BRS with 46-56 seats. India Today-My Axis has not released their Telangana data yet.

Madhya Pradesh

3. Madhya Pradesh is advantage BJP, according to maximum exit poll predictions. The Congress has rejected the predictions as Kamal Nath said the country is not run by television but by vision. Congress leader Digvijaya Singh cited Axis My India's exit poll before 2021 West Bengal assembly election which was wrong in projecting a greater number of seats to the BJP, and wrote: "Would Psephologists please help us to give correct figures?"

4. According to India Today-Axis My India prediction, the BJP will retain power in Madhya Pradesh with 140-162 seats out of 230. Congress is likely to get 60-90 seats. India TV-CNX exit poll predicted 140-159 seats for the BJP and 70-89 seats for the Congress. The Times Now-ETG gave BJP 105-117 seats, Congress 109-125 seats. Republic TV projected 118-130 seats to BJP, 97-107 to Congress.

Rajasthan

5. Rajasthan, according to the pollsters, will be a tough fight between the BJP and the Congress and in such a case smaller parties and independent candidates may play a crucial role in the formation of the next government.

6. India Today-My Axis sees Rajasthan as a close contest between BJP and the Congress with BJP 80-100 seats and the Congress 86-106 seats out of 199. India TV-CNX poll predicted 94-104 seats for Congress and 80-90 seats for BJP. Times Now-ETG poll predicted 56-72 seats to Congress and 108-128 to BJP indicating a huge gap. Jan Ki Baat poll gave 100-122 seats to BJP and 62-85 seats to Congress.

Chhattisgarh

7. The Congress is likely to retain Chhattisgarh but BJP will be a close second. Incumbent chief minister Bhupesh Baghel said the numbers will only increase for the Congress on the counting day, 57 will become 75.

8. India Today-Axis My India poll predicted 40-50 seats out of 90 for the Congress and 36-46 seats for the BJP. ABP C-Voter projected 41-53 seats for the Congress and 36-48 seats for the BJP. The Republic TV exit poll gave Congress 44-52 seats, BJP 34-42 seats; India TV-CNX poll predicted 46- 56 seats for Congress and 30-40 seats for BJP .

Mizoram

9. Mizoram is likely to see a clean sweep by the Zoram People's Movement (ZPM) unseating Mizo National Front. Both Congress and the BJP are distant 3rd and 4th in the contest.

10. According to India Today-Axis My India poll predictions ZPM is expected to win 28-35 seats, MNF 3-7 seats – out of 40. According to Times Now-ETG, it will be a close contest with ZPM at 10-14 seats, MNF 14-18 seats. Jan Ki Baat poll gave 10-14 seats to MNF, 15-25 seats to ZPM. India TV-CNX poll predicted 14-18 seats for MNF and 12-16 seats for ZPM.