COP28 goes into overtime as talks fail to bridge rift on fossil fuel phase-out
The ultimate goal of keeping average temperatures from exceeding 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era average seems to be in peril.
The clock ran out on this year’s climate conference in Dubai on Tuesday with no consensus, forcing the COP28 presidency to go into overtime and hammer out a fifth draft text in a last attempt to resolve differences that could otherwise cripple collective efforts to fight the climate crisis.
At the heart of the issue was whether the world committed to the “phase-out” of fossil fuels, an ask that developing countries and petrostates have been wary of since wealthier nations have failed to deliver on their obligation of providing climate finance.
The blocs are, thus, almost neatly split between developing and developed nations. But what both sides agree on is that without the other doing their part, the ultimate goal of keeping average temperatures from exceeding 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era average will be at peril.
Matters came to a head late on Monday when the COP28 presidency released a fourth draft without any mention of the need to phase out fossil fuels, prompting some countries (mostly wealthy ones) to threaten a walk-out.
“As you know, yesterday [Monday] we released a text. As you also know, lots of Parties felt it did not fully address their concerns. We expected that. We wanted the text to spark conversations… and that is what happened,” said COP28 director-general Majid Al Suwaidi on Tuesday afternoon, calling this year’s talks as the most demanding.
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“And what we are seeing, right now, is everybody working through that agenda. All COPs are challenging. But at this COP, we are trying to do something that has never been done before… something historic,” he said, adding that the strategy was to agree to a comprehensive plan to close the gaps between where the world is, and where it needs to be to keep 1.5°C goal within reach.
“That is our North Star. That has been our North Star all along. Part of this is to include language on fossil fuels in the text. If we can, that would be historic.”
Those opposing any mild wording on fossil fuels include civil society groups and developed nations, including the United States (US), and the European Union (EU). On the other hand are groups of emerging and developing economies that said they do not support phasing out fossil fuels when it is not in line with the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) and without adequate finance to deliver this transition.
Among the latter groups are the Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDC), the Arab Group, G77, China, and the African groups, which were broadly agreeable to the overall fourth iteration of the text.
Countries submitted their views on Monday night even as the US, according to negotiators aware of the matter, was not ready to budge on increasing financing provisions that others have called crucial for a just and smooth energy transition in developing countries.
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An Indian negotiator said emerging economies such as India have sought the inclusion of principles of CBDR and equity in almost all provisions. They have also sought a modification of serial number 39 which lists eight options that countries “could” use to cut emissions, including: “reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero” by or around mid-century.
Other actions listed included tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030; “rapidly phasing down unabated coal”; accelerating zero and low emissions technologies, including, inter alia, renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal technologies, including such as carbon capture and utilization and storage, and low carbon hydrogen production, so as to enhance efforts towards substitution of unabated fossil fuels in energy systems.
“We have sought a modification of this entire paragraph to reflect CBDR and equity,” a negotiator from an LMDC bloc country said.
This person added that nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — the list of actions and targets countries have committed to for 2030 — should not be prescriptive in any manner and that developing countries need finance in trillions not in billions to achieve them.
“We have to also understand that this is an issue of cumulative carbon space and developing nations have aspirations to fulfil. Everybody deserves a dignified life. In the absence of finance, we cannot just go for phase-out of fossil fuels,” the negotiator said.
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Some parties such as the Arab Group have also pointed out that latest science — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s projections do not say phasing out fossil fuels is mandatory to keep the 1.5°C goal alive.
The IPCC, in its Mitigation Pathways Compatible with 1.5°C report, states that the share of primary energy from renewables will need to increase while coal usage decreases across the many pathways the world can take to limit warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot by the end of the century.
By 2050, renewables (including bioenergy, hydro, wind, and solar) should supply 52-67% of primary energy; while the share from coal decreases to 1-7% with a large fraction of this used in combination with carbon capture and storage (CCS) to stay on the 1.5°C pathway.
From 2020 to 2050, the primary energy supplied by oil declines in most pathways (-39 to -77% interquartile range) and by natural gas drops by 13% to 62% (interquartile range).
By citing these, the Arab group countries suggest they are amenable to some language on drawing down fossil fuel use.
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Experts said there was indeed a need to target fossil fuels. In a post on X, Power Shift Africa’s founder and director Mohamed Adow called the energy package good. “This is the first ever mention of fossil fuels in a draft decision. [It] includes what we want, including tripling of renewable capacity. Phasing down of ‘unabated’ coal is important and must be rapid. Reducing consumption & production of fossil…,” he wrote.
Adow said it is only right that rich historic polluters like the US, the UK, and Norway go first, then middle-income nations like those in the Gulf, followed by poorer developing countries after that. “It’s not fair that Congo & Canada must phase out fossil fuels at the same rate.”
Another LMDC negotiator said some rich nations such as the US do not wish to phase out fossil fuels. “They are the largest oil and gas producer and they have huge projects in the pipeline. They also do not wish to deliver on any finance for adaptation or mitigation and have again and again tried to remove references to CBDR. Basically, they want to push the mitigation burden to developing nations.”
These two issues — financing and fossil fuels — thus is where the current impasse boiled down to. “The US and other rich, fossil fuel-producing countries aren’t yet offering finance to seal the deal on a phase-out of fossil fuels. They’re sabotaging an agreement on a fossil fuel phase-out if they also refuse to finance the transition to renewable energy in poor countries. As the world’s largest historical emitter and number one oil and gas producer, it’s incumbent on the United States to make finance part of a COP28 package that assures commitment to phase out fossil fuels across the globe,” said Jean Su, energy justice director with the Center for Biological Diversity.
