BSP faces reckoning in 3 poll-bound states

Lucknow: The Bahujan Samaj Party ’s decision to go it alone in assembly elections in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh later this year has raised the question of whether the party will be kingmaker, spoiler, or simply an also-ran in the three states which will see a direct Congress-Bharatiya Janata Party contest.

Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati, who announced the decision on August 14, is focusing on the party’s traditional support base of Dalit, tribal and Other Backward Class (OBC) voters.

Nixing speculation that the BSP may join the Congress-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) or the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Mayawati has maintained equidistance from the two national groupings. “The BSP will emerge as the third front in four states (Telangana being the fourth state),” said the party’s national coordinator Akash Anand, Mayawati’s nephew.

The BSP polled 4.03% votes and won six assembly seats in the 2018 Rajasthan assembly election. In Madhya Pradesh, it polled 5.01% votes and won two seats. In Chhattisgarh, it polled 3.87% votes and won two seats. In Rajasthan, despite Mayawati offering to support the Congress, the latter engineered the defections of all six winning candidates from the BSP.

Across all three states, the BSP’s share has been in the 4%-7.5% band for the past two decades, analysts say.

Ahead of the elections, Mayawati has said that her party would take a call on joining the government after upcoming the elections in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana to emerge as a “balance of power”.

It isn’t clear whether that will help it regain lost ground among voters who claim that although the BSP received support from Dalits and tribals, it failed to protect their rights as its winning candidates defected to join either the Congress or the BJP, whichever formed the government.

The BSP has released its first list of nine candidates for the Chhattisgarh assembly election. Its two sitting MLAs have been fielded again. It contested the 2018 assembly election in alliance with Janata Congress Chattisgarh (JCC) led by former chief minister Ajit Jogi. While JCC fielded candidates for 55 seats, the BSP contested 35 seats. The alliance won seven seats; the Congress formed the government after a landslide victory.

“The BSP will have to mobilise its resources in Chhattisgarh to retain the seats it won in the 2018 assembly election,” said Gautam Upadhyay, a political analyst

“Since 2003, there has been a decline in its vote percentage. It polled 6.94% votes in 2003, 6.12% in 2008 and 4.29% in 2013. The vote share further declined to 3.9% in 2018. The BSP has won at most two seats in the state that was once the karma bhoomi of its founder Kanshi Ram who contested the 1984 Lok Sabha election from the Janjgir seat,” he added.

The BSP has a strong base in the Chhattisgarh districts bordering Uttar Pradesh, including Surajpur, Korba, Bilaspur, Sarguja, Janjgir and Raigarh. After Ajit Jogi’s death in May 2020, the JCC has been on a decline and the BSP hopes to get its votes too. The BSP is also eyeing reserved seats. Out of 90 assembly seats in Chhattisgarh, 29 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes and 10 for the Scheduled Castes, Upadhyay said.

In Madhya Pradesh, the BSP is working to regain its base in its stronghold -- the Bundelkhand and Vindhyan (Rewa- Satna) region bordering Uttar Pradesh as well as in the Gwalior-Chambal region. It has released the first list of seven candidates. In both the 1993 and 1998 assembly elections, the BSP won 11 seats but its performance has since waned.

In the 2003 assembly election, it polled 7.26% votes and won two seats. In 2008, when the BSP was in power in Uttar Pradesh, the party’s vote share in Madhya increased to 8.97% and it won seven seats. In 2013, it polled 6.29% votes and won four seats. In the 2018 assembly election, its vote share declined to 5.01% with a tally of two seats.

“A weak and directionless leadership is the main reason for the BSP’s decline in Madhya Pradesh,” said political analyst Roli Shivhare.

“After the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BSP leadership removed DP Chaudhary as state president and appointed Ramakant Pippal. The BSP has also opened its doors to defectors from the BJP and the Congress. Recently, senior BJP leaders in Rewa, Satna and Gwalior area joined the BSP. The increase in the activities of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have added to the BSP’s worries. Puran Singh Ahirwar, a close aide of Kanshi Ram joined AAP,” Shivhare added.

Bahujan Samaj Party Rajya Sabha member Ramji Gautam said, “The party has decided to field candidates on all the 230 seats. The focus will be on reserved seats, 47 for STs and 35 for SCs,” he said.

In Rajasthan, the BSP launched the Sarvajan Hitay-Sarvajan Sukhaye Sankalp Yatra from Dholpur to the state capital Jaipur to mobilise party cadres for the assembly election. Led by BSP national coordinator Akash Anand, the yatra is targeting the Congress government . BSP leaders are also reminding the voters how the Congress engineered a defection of its lawmakers, despite Mayawati announcing unconditional support to the Congress after 2018 assembly election.

The BSP released the first list of three candidates making it clear that it will not open its door to the six rebels that defected. State unit president Bhagwan Singh Baba said the party will field candidates in all 200 assembly seats.

“People are angry with the Congress government while infighting among BJP leaders will definitely give an edge to the BSP. The BSP is emerging as the third front in state politics. There are 34 SC reserved seats in the state,” he added.

The BSP opened its account in Rajasthan in the 1998 assembly election, when it polled 2.17% votes and won two seats.

In the 2003 assembly election, the BSP polled 3.97% votes and again won two seats. In the 2008 assembly election, the BSP increased its vote share to 7.60% and won six seats. In the 2013 assembly election, its vote share declined to 3.37% and it won three seats.

Political analyst Deep Singh Shekhawat said the BSP enjoys support in districts in the east and central regions of the state, including Bharatpur, Dholpur, Dausa, Karauli, Alwar, Jhunjhunu and Nagaur.

“If the BSP wants to strengthen its position as the third front, then it should form an alliance with small political parties. The Azad Samaj Party (ASP) led by Chandrashekhar Azad is also emerging as a formidable challenge to the BSP in the Dalit-dominated areas. The ASP is working to contest the 2023 assembly election in alliance with small political parties.”