Maharashtra polls: BJP banks on Eknath Shinde’s appeal as Mahayuti seeks a fresh term

On Thursday, at the closed door National Democratic Alliance(NDA) meeting in Chandigarh which was attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Maharashtra chief minister (CM) and Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde was handpicked to move a resolution that congratulated the PM on the victory in the Haryana assembly elections; this was seconded by the Nagaland and Goa CMs.

It may have been a symbolic move, but it suggested that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may be realising that the Maharashtra CM could play a crucial role in helping the alliance retain power in the state which goes to polls on November 20.

Such thinking may have had its origin in the alliance’s poor showing in the Lok Sabha polls, winning only 17 of the state’s 48 seats, with the opposition alliance winning 30. But the Shiv Sena under Shinde won seven seats with a strike rate of 46.7%, a better strike rate than the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), which won more seats (9) at 42.9%. More significantly, it was the highest strike rate in NDA in the state -- more than the BJP’s 32.1% and the Nationalist Congress Party’s 25%.

“Even after two-and-half years in power, Shinde faces no anti-incumbency,’’ said a senior BJP leader who is working on the campaign. This is a major vote of confidence from the ally which till recently was jostling with Sena for more control and power, and which may also still strike a hard bargain in terms of the number of seats it contests. Earlier this week, deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP made it more or less official when he said pointing towards Shinde during a meeting: “The Mahayuti (the NDA’s avatar in the state) doesn’t have to announce a CM face, our chief minister is sitting here.”

A second BJP worker told HT that the movie based on Shinde’s mentor Anand Dighe Dharamaveer 2 has been pretty successful across the state, releasing in September when the campaign was just beginning. Dighe was a key leader in Balasaheb Thackeray’s party in Thane and Shinde is also portrayed in the movie. “What the movie does successfully is to explain to people why Shinde had to leave the Shiv Sena and carve out a separate path,’’ said the party worker.

This is very important in Maharashtra where several BJP leaders explained that their internal surveys show the Maharashtra voter as being upset with the politics of opportunism. While Ajit Pawar (of the NCP; another deputy CM in the state) was blamed for dividing a family to gain power, Shinde may have managed to give a more acceptable reason for causing a split in his party.

The BJP also believes that the opposition has been reluctant to criticise Shinde. At an internal party meeting of the Nationalist Congress Party (Saratchandra Pawar) meeting in September, Supriya Sule was widely reported as telling her party workers not to criticise Shinde but to focus only on Fadnavis. The party denied this and Sule declined comment. While the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Aaditya Thackeray does attack the CM as “contractor mantri” , the Thackeray family focusses much more of their attack on the BJP. “ Show us one single place where Sharad Pawar has said something against him,’’ said the first BJP leader.

“The CM is unarguably the most popular leader among the masses across Maharashtra. This is not only because of the schemes and development across the state but that for the first time the people of Maharashtra feel CM means common man and not chief minister,’’ said Shiv Sena’s Rajya Sabha MP Milind Deora.

It’s a point which even the Congress’ strategists agree with. They accept that Shinde has managed to capture the imagination of the working classes. In a city that’s known for big money and glamour, Shinde reflects the aspirations of an ordinary party worker or the aam aadmi. And where his aura doesn’t work, he has provided enough sops especially the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana. Aimed at around 110 million women, it promises an assistance of ₹1,500 per month to those women whose families have an income of less than ₹2.5 lakh per annum.