Amid soaring global heat, hopes that G20 will recognise crisis

As the G20 leaders’ summit commences on September 9, there are high expectations that a communique will be released on September 10 and emphasise the intent of the G20 in tackling the climate crisis, acknowledging dire warnings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that there is no time to stop runaway climate change.

The back story is the lack of any headway in climate and energy ministerials held in Goa and Chennai in the lead up to the leaders’ summit. HT reported on July 23 that G20 failed to reach a consensus on critical climate issues such as renewable energy deployment and phasing out fossil fuels, according to a chair’s summary.

Still, India’s power minister added that talks were “one of the most successful” for the bloc, and laid down important groundwork ahead of the COP28 climate talks later this year. But countries highly dependent on oil and gas resisted any strong wording on phasing down fossil fuels even as the wording on zero/low emission technologies raised concerns because experts said this could even mean use of coal with carbon capture and storage. “Accelerated deployment of zero and low-emission technologies including renewables play an important role in achieving energy transitions. It was also noted that the current rate of grid-based technologies deployment globally may be insufficient to achieve universal energy access,” the summary said.

At the G20 climate and sustainability ministerial in Chennai, among issues on which the countries were unable to put up a united front were the scaling up of renewable energy, phasing down of unabated use of fossil fuels and ensuring greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions peak no later than 2025. In effect, the G20 leaders could not agree on all critical actions needed to stick to the Paris Agreement goals.

The inability to agree on deliverables contrasted with the IPCC Working Group III report, Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, which said limiting warming to around 1.5°C requires global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest and be reduced by 43% by 2030 with methane emissions also needing to be reduced by about a third.

“Two-thirds of the greenhouse gas emissions come from the energy sector, which is still overwhelmingly produced by fossil fuels. So, the key suspects are the energy dependent economies, above all the Russian Federation which has nothing but energy in its economy. They are desperately fighting to keep that pillar of the economy alive and then Saudi Arabia of course which says we do not always want to be a petro-state but their entire economic fortunes and their influence depend on exports of oil and natural gas. Now, China for geopolitical reasons is backing Russia as we have seen in the ministerial meetings, so these are the three polluters coming together. There are other members of the G20 that are also a problem,” said John J Kirton, director of the G20 Research Group at Trinity College, Toronto.

The G20 Bali Communique recognised the 1.5°C goal. It also recognised the commitments made in Pittsburgh by the G7 in 2009 to phase-out and rationalise, over the medium term, inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption, while providing targeted support for the poorest and the most vulnerable.

But there is new knowledge about the pace of climate crisis, and it is not good news. The first global stocktake of actions that countries have pledged or taken in response to their 2015 Paris deal commitments are grossly inadequate to meet those promises.

So, the expectation from the Delhi leaders’ summit is that its communique will have language on global peaking of emissions by 2025; tripling of renewable energy capacity; and phasing down on fossil fuels.

It’s also very important, experts said, that the communique doesn’t allow so-called low or zero carbon technologies, carbon capture and storage to take any significant role in mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions.