2022: A World Cup of the young

In every World Cup, there are always some young players who break out, shine, gather the attention of the world, and eventually clinch lucrative moves to top clubs. 20-year-old Thomas Muller of Germany did it in 2010, when he netted a goal or an assist in every match. And so did Columbian teenager James Rodriguez, who netted six goals in 2014, and landed his dream move to Real Madrid. In 2018, it was 19-year-old Kylian Mbappe who made his mark on the world stage, and now, as a 23-year-old, he has further burnished his credentials with his exploits in Qatar.

However, what places the current World Cup apart is that there are more than a few young stars — defined here as 25 years or below in age — leaving their imprint on football’s biggest stage.

A younger generation takes aim

Going far in the World Cup comes down to a team’s ability to score goals. A combined tally of goals and assists, normalised for playing time, is a useful metric to measure the effectiveness of players in offence. We ranked the top 30 players by goals and assists per 90 minutes in the four previous editions. To qualify for the rankings, players should have played at least 270 minutes, equivalent to three full matches. Players with the same tally and same number of matches played got the same rank, with the next rank skipped.

Further, we categorised players into three age brackets: below 25 (younger), 25-32 (middle) and above 32 (older). In 2010, 26% of the set of top 30 players by goals and assists per 90 minutes were below 25. This figure for the 2022 World Cup is 47%, and this is the first time in the past four World Cups that the lot of players have led in appearances.

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Passing the striking baton

In 2014, younger players improved their share to 42%, led by Rodriguez (ranked one), Muller and Neymar Jr (ranked seven). But the middle set (25-32 years) eclipsed them, with players such as Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, Lionel Messi, Alexis Sanchez, Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie shining bright. Their careers, however, are mostly either over or winding down during this edition.

Given its knockout format from the Round of 16, World Cup matches can be tight affairs. To be among the top goal-scorers calls for longevity and offensive nous. The top all-time goal-scorer is Miroslav Klose of Germany, with 16 strikes across four editions. Among active players, Mbappe has the best chance of overhauling that, with nine goals at just 23 years of age. He’s playing in his second World Cup, and is in prime form with 2.1 goals/assists per 90 minutes — the best among the younger set in the last four editions. Other notable younger players from 2022 on this count are Christian Pulisic of the US (0.86), and Cody Gakpo of the Netherlands (0.80).

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Growing numbers in the midfield

The below-25 players are also increasing their impact in midfield. A measure of that is a metric called goal creating actions (GCA). This includes successful dribbles, invited fouls or live- and dead-ball passes that eventually lead to a goal. The share of younger players in the top 30 ranked on GCA has increased from 9% in the 2018 World Cup to 26% in the 2022 World Cup. And they occupy three of the top five GCA spots in 2022.

It’s on defence where the set of younger players, while having a presence, have recorded the smallest gains. We use a metric called tackle win rates (TWR) per 90 minutes — successful tackles that lead to a turnover in possession — to measure defensive effectiveness. The below-25 set has improved its share from 24% in 2018 to 28% in 2022, but the gains are not as pronounced as they are on the offensive side.

Part of the reason is that, in general, defensive players tend to be older and play longer, bringing into play their sill at positioning, as compared to attacking players who rely more on athleticism and speed.

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All-purpose players

In this parameter, other players stand out apart from Mbappe. There’s England’s prodigy Jude Bellingham. At just 19, the Borussia Dortmund midfielder registered a GCA of 1.39 per 90 minutes. His performance against Senegal was particularly remarkable. While England struggled to find rhythm, he broke forward from the midfield to set up Jordan Henderson for the first goal. And then, he wrested the ball near his penalty area and charged past the Senegalese midfield to pick out Phil Foden, who assisted Harry Kane to make it 2-0. Bellingham’s debut in Qatar 2022 has all the potential of Wayne Rooney in Euro 2004 or Michael Owen in the 1998 World Cup.

The other standout performance is French defender Dayot Upamecano who ranks high in both GCA and TWR. Upamecano and Bellingham show how positions and expectations of football players have changed. No longer is a midfielder only supposed to create chances or a defender supposed to defend. And the two square off in a quarter-final this weekend.

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