In political discourse, the term unpredictable often refers to a leader who makes decisions or takes actions that seem to deviate from established norms or defy conventional expectations. Trump’s rhetoric, which often includes inflammatory statements, sudden shifts in policy, and controversial actions, has led many to label him as unpredictable. His impulsive decision-making style, frequently conveyed via Twitter and public speeches, tends to generate uncertainty about his next moves. However, this perception can be a bit misleading. What might seem unpredictable to some could, in fact, be the result of a clear, consistent approach or set of values, even if those values or approaches are unconventional or extreme.

Trump's brand of unpredictability seems to be rooted more in his unconventional style and defiance of political norms rather than a genuine lack of strategy. While he may lack a coherent long-term strategy, his transactional approach to interactions implies a certain level of strategic thinking, albeit one that is likely focused more on immediate gains than sustainable outcomes. Looking back at his actions, many of them align with certain core principles. Trump's rhetoric has often targeted populist sentiments, appealing to frustrations within the working class and creating a distinct us vs them narrative. His actions on issues like immigration, trade, and foreign policy have often been predictable in this sense, focusing on nationalistic policies that resonate with his base.

Also, Trump has consistently leveraged media attention to his advantage. While his statements might seem off-the-cuff or erratic, many are deliberate attempts to dominate the media cycle. His ability to create news and capture public attention has been a calculated tactic, even if it seems unpredictable from the outside. Trump's willingness to break with traditional political etiquette—whether by firing officials, insulting rivals, or disregarding expert advice—might seem erratic to the political establishment. However, this approach aligns with his rejection of the ‘swamp’ of Washington politics and is consistent with his outsider status.

Trump's approach to foreign policy, including trade wars and international diplomacy, has often been framed as unpredictable. Yet, in many cases, his aggressive bargaining tactics are rooted in a long-standing business-oriented approach. His unpredictability in foreign relations can be seen as part of his strategy to force adversaries into concessions through bold threats and unorthodox moves. This further reinforces his compelling narrative of restoring America's greatness (MAGA).

While Trump’s actions may seem unpredictable in the sense that they don’t adhere to traditional political norms, they can often be predicted when you understand his motivations and the broad strategies he employs. What appears as unpredictability is often the result of a leadership style that prioritises boldness, disruption, and constant media attention. In this sense, Trump is not as much unpredictable as he is unconventional and unrestrained.

Some political analysts argue that Trump’s unpredictability is more of a self-created narrative. By behaving in ways that surprise both his allies and enemies, he maintains an aura of uncertainty that keeps people guessing about his next move. This can be advantageous in certain political contexts, especially in negotiations or when attempting to maintain a strong media presence.

To answer whether Trump is truly unpredictable, one must consider certain characteristics. While his actions may seem erratic, there is a certain consistency in his approach to power. He values loyalty, detests perceived weakness, and consistently champions populist policies.

These tendencies have remained constant throughout his career, which makes many of his decisions more predictable than they appear on the surface.

Trump’s public persona is often chaotic and unscripted, but this does not necessarily mean that his private strategies lack foresight or planning. His political moves, including the recent ones, are often calculated to appeal to his base and project an image of strength, even if they involve dramatic or controversial rhetoric. Additionally, part of the unpredictability associated with Trump is the reactionary nature of the media. His ability to control news cycles and elicit reactions from his political opponents creates an image of chaos. However, if you view his media interactions as a strategic choice rather than random outbursts, the unpredictability dissipates.

Trump may be perceived as unpredictable due to his unorthodox approach to politics, his ability to dominate media, and his occasional disregard for conventional norms. However, much of his behaviour aligns with a clear strategy, particularly when viewed through the lens of populism, media manipulation, and negotiation tactics. Therefore, while Trump may seem unpredictable to some, a closer examination reveals that his actions are often grounded in a distinct, albeit unconventional, political thinking. Trump’s unpredictability may not be a lack of foresight, but rather a product of his distinctive, and at times disruptive, approach to leadership.

This article is authored by Pravesh Kumar Gupta, associate fellow (Eurasia), Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi.