The lively election campaign, showcasing Taiwan's robust democratic character, centred on both livelihood issues and the delicate matter of dealing with its powerful one-party State neighbor, China, led by President Xi Jinping, which has become increasingly assertive. The outcome reflects voters supporting the DPP's perspective that Taiwan functions as a de facto sovereign nation. This stance advocates strengthening defences against China's threats and enhancing ties with fellow democratic nations, even if it entails potential economic repercussions or military pressure from Beijing. It also marks a rejection of eight years of increasingly forceful approaches toward Taiwan under Xi's leadership, who has asserted that the island's eventual reunification with the mainland is a "historical inevitability."

The election outcome has, however, resulted in a constrained presidential mandate and a divided parliament, holding significant implications for how Taiwan will navigate its relations with the United States (US) and China. Both opposition parties support closer economic ties with China whereas the DPP proposes more defense spending and deeper security ties with the US. However, achieving substantial progress is challenging due to disagreements among the three parties on these issues. The opposition parties have also pledged to resume nuclear power generation, a stance traditionally opposed by the DPP. A significant generational gap exists, with both the KMT and DPP appealing to older voters, while the TPP garners support from the younger demographic.

Although domestic issues like high housing prices, energy security, wage stagnation, and health care reform may lead to coalitions on specific concerns, a deadlock is expected on matters related to foreign and cross-Strait policy. Beijing is likely to persist in military and diplomatic threats against Taipei, exhibiting some restraint leading up to the US presidential election. Simultaneously, the US is anticipated to exert pressure on Taiwan in technology and defence, leaving Taiwan to navigate a challenging global landscape amid internal divisions and a fragile government.

The DPP's triumph implies a probable continuation of the country's foreign policy stance. Internationally, Lai is expected to fortify ties with democratic nations and adopt a measured approach to cross-Strait policies, following in the footsteps of President Tsai Ing-wen. Lai has actively reassured the US of his commitment to avoiding pro-independence policies, a departure from his prior self-definition as a "pragmatic worker for Taiwanese independence." Simultaneously, he pledges to uphold four key principles outlined by Tsai in 2021, encompassing the defense of Taiwan's freedom, sovereignty, resistance to Beijing's pressure, and ensuring the people's right to determine the island's future.

Economically, the DPP is poised to persist in reducing trade dependence on China and intensify efforts to cultivate stronger ties with pivotal partners like Australia, Europe, and Japan, aiming to bolster economic security through diversified trade. On the domestic front, Lai intends to build on Tsai's initiatives, encompassing wage increases, education subsidies, social housing development, heightened property taxes, and subsidies for renters. Regarding defence matters, Lai will prioritise military strengthening while eschewing negotiations with Beijing. In essence, a DPP victory signals an uptick in efforts to collaborate with like-minded nations and signifies policy continuity, potentially retaining existing personnel.

With regards to China, even with the DPP securing the presidency, it is improbable that the Taiwan elections will significantly alter the course of cross-Strait and regional tensions in the long-term, as these dynamics are primarily shaped by other underlying structural issues to be addressed later in this section. The state of affairs in the Taiwan Strait is expected to stay tense, regardless of the election results.

Leading up to the elections, Beijing utilised influence and disinformation tactics in an attempt to influence the dynamics in favour of China's preferred candidate. In the aftermath of the elections, the Communist Party of China (CCP) will likely feel the need to express its displeasure and retaliate against Lai's victory. However, tensions are expected to gradually ease over time, as it is not in China's interest to escalate matters significantly in 2024.

However, the DPP's victory for a third consecutive presidential term poses challenges for Beijing on various fronts. In the long run, it is anticipated that China will persist in employing a combination of military and economic coercive measures targeting Taiwan. Given its domestic economic challenges, the CCP is likely to defer any new strategies toward Taiwan until after the results of the US presidential election in November. Nonetheless, Beijing's overarching objective of achieving national reunification remains steadfast; Xi Jinping has unequivocally stated a willingness to use force for the reunification of the two sides. Specifically, over the next four years of the DPP presidency, it is expected that Beijing will continue efforts to diplomatically isolate Taiwan by enticing its allies – as evidenced by the recent shift of Nauru's diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing a day after the election. This will likely involve excluding Taiwan from international organisations, insisting on China-friendly terminology concerning Taiwan, and persisting in warning third countries against improving their relations with the island in any form.

The 2024 Taiwanese elections unfolded amid escalating competition between China and the U.S. and a highly unpredictable global landscape marked by major conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, both involving the US as a third-party participant. Against this intricate international backdrop, Taiwan's election contributes to the complexity faced by Taiwan, China and the US.

Looking ahead, despite differing perspectives, all three candidates in the presidential race expressed a commitment to maintaining the status quo, aligning with prevailing public sentiment. Consequently, the current trajectory of cross-Strait relations and regional tensions is unlikely to undergo fundamental changes due to this election. Instead, larger factors such as US-China competition, Beijing's domestic situation, and its military capabilities will likely have a more decisive role in determining whether it feels confident enough to pursue direct military action for the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland.

This article is authored by Ananya Raj Kakoti and Gunwant Singh, scholars, international relations, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.