The outgoing President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo is believed to have extended tacit support to Prabowo, the defence minister in the Widodo government. Apparently, Prabowo’s running mate for the 2024 election, Surakarta mayor Gibran Rakabuming Raka, is Widodo’s eldest son, which not only influences Jokowi’s involvement in the election but would also have his impact on the next government should Probowo-Gibran team wins the election. So far, Prabowo is leading the race, and is likely to maintain the momentum in coming days.

The Prabowo-Gibran duo’s electoral slogan titled, “Advancing Together Toward Golden Indonesia 2045” is impressive and speaks of the ambition and vision to elevate Indonesia to a higher pedestal by 2045. It is also in tune with Jokowi’s own foreign policy and economic agenda. Prabowo has already expressed his commitment to bring to fruition the Nusantara project which aims to shift the capital from Jakarta to Nusantara.

Amongst other things, there is one element that reminds one of the United States (US) presidential elections – the five debates organised by the Indonesian General Elections Commission (KPU). The third round of debate among presidential hopefuls, held in early January, threw light on their foreign policy agenda.

While Indonesian foreign policy is not expected to witness massive changes under the next administration, the personality factor will definitely play a role in shaping the overall direction of Jakarta’s international outlook. For instance, Prabowo Subianto, who is leading the opinion surveys as the presidential favourite, is considered an old hand in Indonesian defence and foreign policy circle. With his background as a retired army general and the defence minister in the Widodo government since 2019, he is expected to make Indonesian foreign policy sturdier making it more defence and security-oriented.

With Prabowo as the president, Indonesia’s foreign and defence policy is likely to have greater tilt towards a more muscular approach to issues such as the South China Sea dispute and arms procurement. Prabowo has already been called out by the other two candidates on the defence ministry’s plan to procure $792 million on 12 Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets, which were used by the Qatari air force. Raising defence expenditure despite a tight defence budget allocation would be a challenge for Prabowo if he assumes the presidential office. Likewise, on Russia-Ukraine conflict, Prabowo’s views stand out to say the least.

Often deviating from official positions and party lines, Prabowo drew a lot of international attention with his comments on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Speaking at the 2023 Shangri-La Dialogue defence meeting in Singapore, Prabowo triggered a backlash, both domestically and abroad, for his proposal to end the war in Ukraine. In his speech, Prabowo recommended creation of a demilitarised zone, followed by a United Nations referendum to settle the dispute.

Prabowo’s plan did not receive much appreciation from either of the parties. In fact, Ukraine even termed it “unrealistic” and driven by Prabowo’s own domestic political goals.

Even in presidential debates, Prabowo has not been able to demonstrate his skills and experience during the debates so far.

For Prabowo, navigating Indonesia’s interests amidst escalating US-China tensions would also be difficult, and so would be the ever so complicated and delicate relations with China. On the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) front, continuity more than change is the likely scenario should Prabowo come to power.

In comparison to Prabowo, Anies Baswedan, former Jakarta governor and a scholar by training, and a seasoned politicians and former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo look pale as their focus is largely on the domestic agenda. That said, both the contenders bring to the table several good ideas.

For instance, Anies has been pitching for enhancing Indonesia’s soft power profile by making greater use of cultural and art diplomacy. Taking an indirect dig at Jokowi, Anies also promised to be more disciplined and regular at participating in international forums and attending summits.

Coming from Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan, PDI-P, which is led by Jokowi himself, Ganjar sticks to the pillars of PDI-P foreign policy agenda. As the governor of Central Java, his priorities seem to be on the economic and domestic fronts. Following Jokowi’s footsteps in many ways, Ganjar too promises to focus on economic diplomacy, multilateralism, and reviving Asean with greater role for Indonesia.

While it is true that compared to Prabowo, both Anies and Ganjar are less exposed to foreign and defence matters, that should not be to the detriment of Indonesia’s foreign policy. We must not forget that despite being termed a president who is not too keen on foreign affairs, Widodo took several foreign and security policy steps including reviving the trisakti (threes pillars of the State propounded by Sukarno) Global Maritime Axis, Indo-Pacific initiatives, offer to mediate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and role in salvaging the Myanmar crisis, that reaffirmed Indonesia’s position as primus inter pares in the Asean region. During his two terms, Widodo took several strong foreign policy initiatives that have long-term implications on Indonesia’s foreign relations and its diplomatic acumen.

In essence, Indonesia’s foreign policy is likely to witness more continuity than change under the next president, with personality factor and leadership style bringing about a new style in the way Indonesia perceives both its role as well as the international relations.

This article is authored by Rahul Mishra, associate professor, Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi