“History is a vast early warning system,” wrote Norman Cousins, author of Human Options. For the national Capital, Delhi – known for its historical significance – it appears condemned to relive history when it comes to combating air and water pollution, despite persistent warnings from environmental experts and scientific data.

The Air Quality Index (AQI) data on November 19, 2024, in Delhi NCR peaked to 795, the highest ever recorded in the region’s history. Few months later, in January, the AQI breached 270, prompting the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) to re-invoke all actions under Stage 3 of the much-discussed Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP).

“History is a vast early warning system,” wrote Norman Cousins, author of Human Options. For the national Capital, Delhi – known for its historical significance – it appears condemned to relive history when it comes to combating air and water pollution, despite persistent warnings from environmental experts and scientific data.

The Air Quality Index (AQI) data on November 19, 2024, in Delhi NCR peaked to 795, the highest ever recorded in the region’s history. Few months later, in January, the AQI breached 270, prompting the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) to re-invoke all actions under Stage 3 of the much-discussed Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP).

Since past seven years, Delhi’s annual average AQI has consistently exceeded 200, barring a temporary drop to 185 in 2020 due to pandemic-induced restrictions. The impact? Pollution levels reach a level where it ends up posing health risks equivalent to smoking three cigarettes a day, according to official data. Delhi’s air pollution is cyclical in nature, exacerbated during specific seasons, and hence there is a need for a structured, long-term approach to mitigation.

Water pollution remains equally dire. The Yamuna River, a lifeline for millions, has suffered from decades of contamination despite the Supreme Court (SC)'s oversight and ₹6,856.91 crore spent on clean-up efforts between 2015 and 2021.

The newly elected government, which campaigned on a promise to make pollution control a top priority, must now translate rhetoric into tangible action. The immediate deployment of trash skimmers, weed harvesters, and dredge utility units to clean the Yamuna, just days after the election, gained national attention and sparked optimism. However, true transformation requires more than symbolic gestures.

In December 2024, a SC bench observed that there is a need for shifting the gaze from cure to prevention to curb air pollution in a phased manner. Both justices AS Oka and AG Masih, who had been monitoring the air pollution crisis in Delhi NCR, suggested stringent curbs on vehicular emissions, better waste management, and an accelerated transition to electric vehicles (EVs). They specifically highlighted the need for expediting the electrification of government-owned vehicle fleets, given their substantial presence in the region.

According to a recent SAFAR study, the transport sector continues to be at the forefront of Delhi’s pollution narrative. Its dominance can be fought with the shifting to EVs, thus significantly reducing health risks and economic burdens.

According to 2023 vehicular emissions data, replacing cars older than 15 years with EVs could reduce PM2.5 concentration by 8.89% and per capita health care costs by 6%. An extensive EV transition has the potential to slash ambient PM2.5 levels by 39.18%, mortality-related healthcare costs by 25.78%, morbidity costs by 12.54%, and overall per capita health care expenditure by 25.79%.

The ruling party has promised to cut Delhi's AQI in half and transition 50% of vehicles to EVs by 2030 under the Delhi Clean Air Mission. However, the previous administration fell short of its FY24 goal, achieving only 12% EV adoption instead of the targeted 25%. The current administration, therefore, must be aware of the plausible roadblocks in achieving their ambitious targets.

Despite mandatory scrapping of older diesel and petrol vehicles in 2021, Delhi’s vehicle density remains high at 472 per 1,000 residents. Personal vehicles account for 92% of new registrations, yet EV four-wheelers make up only 3% of this total, highlighting significant adoption barriers such as high costs, inadequate charging infrastructure, and limited consumer awareness.

Delhi must accelerate its transition to EVs by offering direct incentives, expanding charging infrastructure, and discouraging high-emission vehicles. This shift would not only improve air quality but also reduce healthcare costs and enhance life expectancy. Complementary policies should enforce stricter industrial emission controls, improve waste segregation, and deploy advanced pollution monitoring systems.

Delhi’s pollution crisis, as has been recommended earlier, must be guided by policy continuity – which the new administration could prioritize. Apart from that, there is also regulatory enforcement, and strategic investment in clean mobility that is important. Failure to act decisively will perpetuate a cycle of crisis management.

A structured plan could include legally binding pollution reduction targets, such as cutting emissions of particulate matter (PM), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and carbon dioxide (CO2) by 50% by 2029. This requires coordinated efforts among the government, industries, and citizens.

There must also be focus on energy transition efforts which should include decommissioning thermal power stations within 100 km of Delhi, introducing tiered electricity tariffs to curb excessive consumption, and mandating energy conservation measures, such as early closures of energy-intensive businesses.

Industrial and domestic waste management reforms should enforce stricter emission controls, improve waste segregation, and promote sustainable disposal methods. Sustainable urban mobility initiatives, including expanding pedestrian pathways and bicycle lanes, alongside congestion pricing, can limit non-essential vehicular movement.

Delhi's pollution crisis demands a decisive, long-term response. Immediate interventions will provide short-term relief, but sustainable change requires structural reforms. The city cannot afford another cycle of reactive measures, it must institutionalise pollution control through stringent policies, infrastructural investment, and collective behavioural shifts.

This article is authored by Arun Duggal, founder, Centre of Excellence for Research in Climate Change and Air Pollution (CERCA), IIT Delhi.